Ark Invest, Under Cathie Wood’s Leadership, Increases Optimistic Bitcoin Price Prediction to $2.4 Million by 2030

ARK Invest has updated its projections for bitcoin (BTC), increasing its target for the end of the decade to a staggering $2.4 million per coin. This adjustment stems from a new understanding of the active supply, discounting coins that are either lost or held for extended periods. Currently, bitcoin is valued at approximately $94,000.

The bullish estimation represents a 60% increase compared to earlier forecasts made in January 2024, signaling a 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from last December through 2030. Alternatively, the base scenario projects a BTC value of $1.2 million, implying a 53% CAGR, while the bearish outlook puts it at $500,000, reflecting a 32% CAGR.

David Puell, an analyst affiliated with ARK Invest and led by Cathie Wood, formulated this projection using a model centered on the total addressable market and anticipated market absorption across various sectors. These sectors encompass institutional investments, bitcoin’s status as “digital gold,” its functionality as a financial shelter in developing markets, its integration into national and corporate treasury reserves, as well as on-chain financial services utilizing the bitcoin infrastructure.

Last November, Puell predicted a range of $104,000 to $124,000 for the end of the year. Bitcoin concluded December at $93,440, later reaching a peak of $109,000 in January before dipping to around $74,500 earlier this month.

The subsequent price surge has been attributed to a decrease in balances held on exchanges, indicating that a growing amount of BTC is being moved into private wallets, suggesting a trend of long-term holding. Data from Glassnode indicates that the amount of BTC on exchanges has declined from roughly 3 million in November 2024 to 2.6 million, further bolstering the optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency.