Prediction Markets Investors Wager Heavily on a Comfortable Liberal Victory as Canadians Cast Their Votes

Political enthusiasts engaging in betting on platforms like Polymarket are closely monitoring the Canadian political landscape as the country prepares for its elections.

As Canada approaches its 45th election, a wagering contract predicting the next Prime Minister indicates a 78% likelihood for Mark Carney of the Liberal Party and a 22% chance for the Conservative candidate, Pierre Poilievre.

Bettors exhibit a slight skepticism towards Carney’s prospects compared to polling data; a recent aggregation from a public broadcaster suggests an even higher confidence level of 89% in Carney’s favor.

Myriad Markets aligns closely with Polymarket, providing Carney with similarly favorable odds.

In Ontario, FanDuel originally offered the Conservatives a surprising lead at 70%. However, their odds have since normalized to reflect those of prediction markets, now favoring the Liberals with an approximate 80% chance of victory.

Distinct from the dynamics seen in U.S. elections, the Canadian race does not emphasize cryptocurrency, focusing instead on issues like trade and economic inflation.

Suspicions of Manipulation?

A narrative emerging in certain internet communities suggests that Polymarket may be prone to manipulation, a sentiment reminiscent of arguments made during the latter stages of the U.S. elections, where Trump appeared to lead amidst tighter polling results.

Doubts have been raised regarding whether Poilievre’s potential is being underestimated, asserting that the current assessments do not align with public sentiment.

Yet, critics argue that manipulating these markets would require considerable financial resources, and credible evidence for such activities remains absent, especially following Polymarket’s ban in Canada’s most populous province due to regulatory issues.

According to Polymarket Analytics, interest in this election contract is significant, with the platform evidencing strong engagement through a high volume of unsettled bets.

A notable observation shows that ownership of positions is quite diversified, with the most significant holder of the “Poilievre—No” bet controlling 6% of that side while the leading holder on Carney’s “Yes” side commands 5%.

One bettor, placing a substantial bet on Carney, expressed to CoinDesk that their motivations are neutral, arguing that the reliability of polling in Canada gives them confidence in the Liberals’ chances.

“In order for Poilievre to win, he would need the polling to be off by seven points, which I believe is closer to 7% probability than the market’s current valuation of 23%,” stated trader Tenadome in a message to CoinDesk. “The group betting on Poilievre largely appears to be less informed, as they subscribe to ideas like external manipulation of polling.”

The record for the highest profit in the betting contract is held by a user identified as “ball-sack,” who gained $124,890 from bets on Carney. Conversely, “biden4prez” is reported to have lost over $98,000 betting on Poilievre against Carney.