Analyst Forecasts: ‘Invest in Dogecoin This May and Exit’

Josh Olszewicz, also recognized as @CarpeNoctom in the trading community, has creatively modified the well-known investment saying “Sell in May and go away” to feature a canine twist. Recently, he shared a one-day Ichimoku chart related to DOGE/USD, dated April 28, 2025, posing the playful question: “DOGE in May and Walk Away?” This insight explores the critical price range as the meme cryptocurrency approaches the historically challenging month of May.

Should You Sell Dogecoin in May?

Olszewicz notes the price consolidation from February to April, marking an anticipated inverse head-and-shoulders pattern with the classical letters S-H-S?. The left shoulder appeared in mid-March just over $0.14, while the head dipped to about $0.13 on April 7. Currently, the market is examining a potential right shoulder low around $0.17-0.18.

Two dotted trend lines illustrate a downward-sloping neckline, currently intersecting the price area between $0.185 and $0.195. A daily close above this range would support the reversal structure; a conservative measured move from the head ($0.14) to the neckline ($0.185) suggests a potential target of around $0.23. The white reference line at $0.28181 indicates a previous horizontal supply level, also aligning with the mid-June resistance projection from Senkou-span, providing a secondary target should the pattern unfold completely.

Additional Insights

The chart utilizes adjusted Ichimoku parameters (20, 60, 120, 30), broadening the analysis to accommodate the volatility in cryptocurrencies. As of Monday’s close, Dogecoin is priced at $0.17533, positioned between a rising Tenkan-sen at $0.16471 and a stable Kijun-sen at $0.18593. Staying below this baseline signals a bearish outlook for the long term, but the Tenkan’s positioning beneath the price indicates potential short-term momentum.

Forecasting thirty periods ahead, the cloud presents a bearish red appearance, with its lower boundary (Senkou Span A) starting at $0.20825 and its upper boundary (Senkou Span B) remaining flat at $0.31392.

This implies that even if there’s a breakout above the neckline, Dogecoin would still face a supply zone between $0.21 and $0.31, having capped every rally since the major downturn in early January. Hence, bulls must first secure both the neckline and Kijun, then navigate through persistent selling pressure within the Kumo.

Additional Insights

The phrase Olszewicz plays on, “Sell in May and go away,” is rooted in historical trends in the stock market, cautioning against weak performance during the summer months. By replacing “sell” with DOGE, he raises the unconventional notion that the dog-themed cryptocurrency may actually be the asset that traders should flock to, countering the usual trend during a sluggish phase. This technical perspective relies on the bulls achieving a breakout in early May, before the neckline lowers further and the resistance cloud thickens.

If this does not happen, the pattern will remain unverified, prices will likely stay below the Kijun, and the established downtrend that began with January’s spike above $0.48 will persist. Initial support is at the Tenkan ($0.165), with March’s capitulation low near $0.14 serving as the ultimate support level.

Currently, DOGE is trading at $0.178.

Image generated with DALL.E, chart sourced from TradingView.com