Bitcoin Set to Surge to $210,000 by 2025: Insights from Quant Firm Presto

During a live discussion with CNBC’s Squawk Box, Peter Chung, Head of Research at quantitative trading firm Presto, reaffirmed his belief that Bitcoin could soar to $210,000 by the end of 2025, positing that the cryptocurrency is developing into a macro-level safe haven in times of financial turmoil.

Bitcoin Poised for Major Growth

“Our market outlook remains unchanged,” he stated right at the beginning of the program. “Our target for Bitcoin is still $210,000, fueled by institutional uptake and increased global liquidity.” He noted that a similar approach informs Presto’s evaluation of Ether, adding: “For ETH, our price target continues to stem from the ETH-to-BTC ratio, which remains at 0.05, reflecting ongoing efforts within the community to tackle the value-leakage issue.”

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Chung rejected claims that the earlier this year’s downturn undermined their model: “While not every outcome matched our expectations thus far this year—particularly concerning the macroeconomic landscape and market reactions—looking back, this correction has been beneficial, laying the groundwork for Bitcoin’s broader acceptance as a key asset.”

At Presto, Chung indicated that the primary focus this month has been to assess any underlying issues within the market—be it confidence-related or linked to global stability—and how these assets are reflected in investor portfolios. Their assessment revealed that fundamental drivers remain unbroken.

The in-depth conversation continued as the hosts inquired about the reasons behind April’s gold surge, even as Bitcoin lagged initially. Chung elaborated on Bitcoin’s dual nature: “Bitcoin can be seen in two lights: as digital gold and as a risk-on asset. Usually, it leans toward risk-on, but in crisis situations, it aligns more with gold. Such instances are rare and occur when there are questions about the US-dollar-dominated financial system—the very circumstances we witnessed in April.”

When asked about what contributes most significantly to the $210,000 projection, Chung pointed to “global liquidity expansion,” a variable tracked through the financial activities of major central banks and substantial sovereign wealth funds. Although growth in money supply has eased in the U.S., it has recently picked up speed in China and the euro area—a trend Presto believes will influence crypto markets through international flows.

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He also emphasized the importance of institutional order flow data, which his firm attributes to identifying the rally forecast for 2024. “The share of block trades over $10 million in Bitcoin perpetual futures,” he remarked off-camera, “has risen back above 7 percent of total volume for the first time since November 2023.”

Understanding Why $210,000 is Realistic

While the rounded figure attracts attention, Chung contended that $210,000 is actually conservative compared to historical adoption trends: “If you chart Bitcoin’s network growth alongside the internet’s monetization from 1994 to 2007, projections exceed $210,000 by a considerable margin. We selected this figure for its balance of tail risk and liquidity limitations. It’s not an aggressive estimate; it represents the median result in our model.”

Nevertheless, he acknowledged that the trajectory won’t be straightforward: “Our goal is not to precisely predict the week or month; rather, we aim to assess whether any core elements—such as scarcity, decentralization, and acceptance—have faltered. To date, nothing appears to be broken.”

The hosts pressed for scenarios that might necessitate a downward adjustment. Chung identified two critical thresholds: a prolonged decline in global real M2, which would hinder investment capacity and diminish the liquidity premium driving up scarce digital assets, and a significant consensus failure within the Bitcoin network—an event he emphasized has yet to occur in fifteen years but must be accounted for in any quantitative risk analysis.

Barring these circumstances, Presto interprets the April adjustment as a “mid-cycle cleansing” that eliminated excess leverage in anticipation of the subsequent phase. “Bitcoin is already making strides to recover,” Chung noted, highlighting the bounce from mid-April lows. Whether this momentum can elevate the asset into six-figure territory by New Year’s Eve ultimately depends on whether investors opt to hedge against geopolitical risks now or in response to the next market shake-up.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was valued at $94,983.