Polkadot Price Stuck in a 5-Year Trend – Will It Finally Break Out?

In a recent update shared on X, Çağnur Cessur noted that Polkadot (DOT) has been consistently operating within a well-defined black channel on its monthly chart. This channel is characterized by established horizontal support and resistance points, which have been validated multiple times over the last four to five years.

The defined range, which stretches from $4 at its lowest to approximately $12 at its highest, has effectively contained DOT’s price movements, leading to a long-term sideways market structure. A significant breakout from this five-year range, particularly accompanied by substantial trading volume, could indicate the onset of a new trend, either initiating price discovery or delving further into support levels.

Examining Price Movements Within the Channel

Cessur highlighted in his latest assessment that the green channel depicted on the Polkadot chart signifies a downtrend that has persisted for nearly four years. This trend has consistently shaped the broader market conditions, serving as a long-term resistance barrier. However, he mentioned that if DOT succeeds in breaching this channel, it could pave the way for a major upward trend in the coming months.

Additionally, he pointed out DOT’s short-term perspective, noting that a red falling channel on the weekly timeframe has recently been broken to the upside. Cessur suggests that this development signals a potential bullish continuation, positioning DOT as one of the altcoins likely to see an upward surge.

The analyst concluded that if the asset continues to adhere to the multi-year range of $4 to $12, another upward movement toward the upper limit of this range appears probable. Crucially, if the weekly candle closes above $4.70, he remarked that the likelihood of a rapid ascent toward $10 could rise significantly, boosted by increasing bullish momentum and historical price patterns.

Bearish Perspective: Falling Below $4 Could Lead Polkadot to Its Lowest Points

The bearish scenario for Polkadot centers on the crucial $4 support level, which has been essential in sustaining the altcoin’s price framework. A drop below the $4 threshold might suggest a more pronounced bearish trend. This situation could overturn recent bullish expectations and elevate the risk of further declines as market sentiment becomes more cautious.

A decline under this vital support level would imply that the upward trends witnessed in recent months may have been deceptive, with DOT failing to uphold its position above key support lines. Its inability to stay above $4 could trigger intensified selling pressure, particularly if broader market conditions deteriorate or confidence in Polkadot’s long-term potential wanes.

Moreover, a fall beneath this significant support could spike the chances of retesting all-time lows, representing a major bearish shift for the token. In such a scenario, strategic re-entry points and patience would be critical considerations for both short-term and long-term investors.