Crypto prediction markets indicate increasing recession probabilities as the US economy contracts.

Crypto prediction markets are reflecting an increasing likelihood of a recession in the U.S. this year, following recent economic data indicating a contraction in the economy during the first quarter of 2025.

Recent statistics from the U.S. Commerce Department reveal that the gross domestic product fell by 0.3% from January to March. This downturn follows a 2.4% growth in the previous quarter, representing the first economic downturn since 2022.

In response to the data, participants on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket have raised the probability of a recession in 2025 to 66%, marking the highest level recorded this year.

Engagement in the event market has been significant, with over $3.8 million traded in total volume as of the latest update.

Sentiment on Kalshi, a regulated event-trading exchange, also supports this outlook, with recession odds peaking at 74% before retracting slightly to 71% at the latest check.

In light of the economic slump and rising recession expectations, U.S. lawmaker Daniel Goldman has criticized the trade policies of the Trump administration.

He contended that the implemented tariffs have led to increased consumer costs, diminished confidence, and contributed to the GDP decline.

Goldman stated:

“Trump is the first president to knowingly crash the economy… As he drives us toward a recession, working people will suffer while his associates get rich.”