Analyst Outlines 3 Potential Scenarios for the Next Major Market Surge

Bitcoin is approaching the $100,000 benchmark, continuing its upward trajectory that has characterized its recent performance in the market. Currently, the asset is valued at around $96,091, reflecting a 3.6% rise within the past week.

This sustained increase follows a correction that took place in early April, indicating that the larger market remains active, with momentum gradually building. As trading dynamics sharpen, analysts are concentrating on the indicators influencing short- to medium-term outlooks.

One notable analyst, Axel Adler Jr. from CryptoQuant, recently shared new insights suggesting that Bitcoin’s on-chain momentum has entered what he describes as the “start” rally zone, with a momentum ratio of approximately 0.8. This level is deemed significant when evaluating whether Bitcoin will climb further or enter a consolidation phase.

Three Scenarios Shaping the Road Ahead

In a recent analysis titled “Bitcoin is warming up – 3 scenarios that could shape the next rally,” Adler presented a range of possibilities informed by current network data and past trends.

He identifies an “optimistic” scenario where the momentum ratio exceeds 1.0 and stabilizes, hinting at a potential rally towards the $150,000 to $175,000 range. This scenario reflects historical breakout moments seen in 2017 and 2021, where a decisive shift in key indicators led to prolonged bullish trends.

The “base case,” as labeled by Adler, suggests that the momentum ratio will stabilize between 0.8 and 1.0, positioning Bitcoin within a trading range of $90,000 to $110,000. In this situation, market participants maintain their positions but exercise caution toward increasing their exposure.

A more cautious perspective, termed the “pessimistic” scenario, would occur if the momentum ratio drops toward 0.75. This decline could imply that short-term holders may sell off their assets, potentially prompting a correction within the $70,000 to $85,000 range.

Despite this, Adler pointed out that because a recent correction is already factored into the market, the optimistic and base case scenarios currently hold greater plausibility.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Activity Signals Accumulation

In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant’s analyst Crypto Dan provided additional insights that bolster a positive outlook. Dan observed that Bitcoin’s current structure resembles earlier accumulation phases experienced in early 2024.

He noted that in both January and October, increased activity from short-term holders—those holding their coins for one day to one week—preceded significant upward movements. This behavioral pattern has resurfaced recently, suggesting that the market may be gearing up for a more substantial shift.

Historically, such patterns have emerged just ahead of major rallies not only in Bitcoin but also across the altcoin market. If current behaviors are indicative of past cycles, Bitcoin could be on the verge of surpassing the $100,000 threshold and entering a renewed upswing.