Bitcoin Traders’ Top Pick for the First Half of the Year — The $300K BTC Call Option

In the cryptocurrency landscape, daring forecasts are more than mere speculation; they are often backed by tangible investment strategies akin to betting on long odds for substantial returns.

A key highlight currently is the bitcoin call option with a $300,000 strike price scheduled to expire on June 26. This option essentially implies a belief that the price of BTC will surge threefold to exceed $300,000 by the end of June.

At the moment, there are over 5,000 contracts active for the June $300K call, resulting in a notable open interest totaling $484 million. This positions it as the second-most sought-after option for the important June expiration, only surpassed by the $110K call option.

As the premier crypto options platform, Deribit makes up over 75% of global activity in this area. Each options contract on Deribit equates to 1 BTC. Upcoming quarterly expirations, like the one on June 26, amplify market activity and volatility, as traders leverage these deadlines to hedge investments, secure profits, or speculate on future price movements.

“It’s similar to the allure of a lottery ticket. The call skew indicates there are always participants seeking protection against hyperinflation,” noted Spencer Hallarn, a derivatives trader at the crypto market-making firm GSR, clarifying the substantial open interest in the high-risk $300K call option.

Options that are significantly out-of-the-money (OTM), often referred to as wings, necessitate a major price shift in the underlying asset to generate profit, making them much less expensive than those near or below the current market value. However, if the market experiences an upturn, the potential gains can be substantial, comparable to buying rare lottery tickets with a slim chance but a huge reward.

Similar patterns have been observed in the BTC options market on Deribit during past bullish trends, but such bets rarely achieved enough traction to be deemed the second-most attractive option in quarterly expirations.

The data illustrates that the June 26 expiration is the largest among all this year’s settlements, with the $300K call boasting the second-highest open interest for June options.

Trader Simranjeet Singh from GSR explained, “The significant open interest in the $300K call likely stems from traders acquiring relatively inexpensive wings, anticipating a favorable U.S. regulatory environment, and the speculative potential of a BTC strategic reserve discussed at the beginning of the current administration.”

On the previous Friday, Senator Cynthia Lummis expressed her satisfaction with President Trump’s endorsement of her BITCOIN Act during a speech.

“The BITCOIN Act represents our nation’s answer to the $36 trillion debt crisis. I appreciate a visionary president who not only recognizes this issue but also takes action,” Lummis stated.

Who initiated the $300K calls?

Significant selling activity in the $300K call option expiring on June 26 was noted in April, part of a covered call strategy used by traders to enhance returns on their existing spot market holdings.

“I believe the selling volume witnessed on April 23 was mainly generated by traders looking to earn income against a long position,” Magadini explained to CoinDesk. “Each call was sold at around $60 with an implied volatility of 100%.”

Employing the strategy of selling higher strike OTM call options while holding a long position in the spot market is a commonly used method for generating yield across both cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets.