Bitcoin Set to Challenge All-Time High Again if This Level Stays Stable: Bitfinex

Bitcoin’s resurgence in April positions it for a possible breakout towards its highest recorded value, contingent on maintaining a crucial technical support level. This is the central message from a recent report that provides a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin’s market behaviors and the fundamental dynamics at play amidst ongoing macroeconomic challenges.

Bitcoin Targets Record High

The analysis indicates that Bitcoin finished April with a notable 14.08% increase, surpassing both its historical monthly average of 13% and a median return of 7.3%. This rebound is particularly remarkable considering the dramatic volatility earlier in April, where Bitcoin experienced a steep decline of 32% from its record high of $109,590 to a low of $74,501, marking the most significant correction this cycle.

This decline, exacerbated by macroeconomic factors such as trade disputes, initially suggested a potential structural failure. However, the subsequent robust recovery suggests a resilient market, as noted by analysts.

Additional Insights

“Bitcoin has demonstrated considerable strength compared to other risk assets,” the report highlights, pointing out that the price rebounded over 32% from its lows in April to reach local highs of $97,900. Yet, this rally now encounters a pivotal test: whether Bitcoin can reclaim and stabilize at the $95,000 mark, which is deemed a crucial pivot point by analysts, representing the lower boundary of a range that defined market conditions from November 2024 to February 2025.

The report stresses that maintaining position above this level is not merely a sentiment issue, but one of technical significance. Successfully consolidating above $95,000 could signal a return to bullish market conditions, potentially leading to a retest of the all-time high of $109,590. Conversely, failing to do so may lead to renewed resistance and a possible correction.

A key aspect of the bullish outlook hinges on the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, currently estimated at $93,340. This metric, which reflects the average purchase price of coins held by recent buyers, has historically marked a boundary between bullish and bearish phases. According to the report, reclaiming and maintaining support in this area would be an encouraging signal, indicating a shift from resistance to support, thereby bolstering bullish sentiment.

Additional Insights

Analysts emphasize the significance of maintaining this level. Staying above the STH cost basis helps deter a substantial group of recent buyers from incurring unrealized losses, which could increase selling pressure. As articulated in the report: “The coming trading sessions will be crucial in establishing if this consolidation is the bedrock for a new upward movement or simply a local peak.”

Reasons for BTC’s Strength

In addition to price levels and technical indicators, the analysis explores on-chain data, shedding light on the confidence of long-term network participants. Mining reserves, a key indicator of market sentiment, have shown notable stability, rising slightly from 1,808,315 BTC in December 2024 to 1,808,674 BTC by May 2025. This stability, according to analysts, implies a purposeful holding strategy, especially since miners typically liquidate some assets to cover operational costs. Continuous restraint from miners indicates a bullish outlook for the long term.

The behavior of miners is further validated by the Puell Multiple, a widely used profitability metric. This indicator, which compares miners’ daily earnings to the 365-day average, remains well below the historically significant 2.0 level that has often preceded major sell-offs. “Miners are, by nature, some of the most disciplined participants in the market,” analysts note, asserting that their decision to hold during Bitcoin’s recent recovery adds credibility to the notion that the ongoing rally is fundamentally supported rather than simply reactive.

Overall, the analysis presents the current Bitcoin market as one characterized by critical levels and cautious optimism. While the rapid recovery from the lows in April is impressive and technically sound, focus is now directed towards maintaining support between $93,340 and $95,000. Should Bitcoin sustain its position in this range, it may possess the necessary structural support to pursue its upward trajectory and approach its all-time high.

As of the latest update, Bitcoin is valued at $96,923.