BTC Surpasses $100K Again After Three Months; Are Forecasted Gains Underestimated?

Bitcoin has surged back above the six-figure mark, showcasing its unpredictable nature as it defies many market expectations.

Previously, the leading cryptocurrency surpassed the $100,000 milestone in December, gaining momentum after Donald Trump’s election win in November. The price peaked at over $109,000 just before Trump was inaugurated on January 20.

As bullish sentiment grew, price projections soared, but the trend soon shifted. Over the following weeks, the market saw a consistent downturn, bottoming out at nearly $75,000 amid the chaos triggered by Trump’s announcement of tariffs in early April.

The fallout was particularly severe for many alternative cryptocurrencies. For example, Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) experienced declines of over 60%.

However, there has been a rapid recovery since then, with both traditional and cryptocurrency markets moving beyond the initial tariff shock. Presently, Bitcoin, alongside the Nasdaq and S&P 500, has reached levels higher than those seen prior to the tariffs.

This recent rally past the $100,000 mark appears to be linked to a new trade agreement between the U.S. and the UK.

### Focus on Capital Flows

“The primary narrative surrounding Bitcoin has shifted once more,” observed Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered in a Thursday note. “The focus is now on capital flows, which are manifesting in various ways.”

Kendrick highlighted the well-documented surge in inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs recently. Critics often downplay this trend due to significant portions of those inflows being counterbalanced by basis trades—where hedge funds simultaneously short Bitcoin futures while earning a minimal yield. Nevertheless, Kendrick contended that basis trades have not significantly increased amid this latest inflow wave, indicating that genuine investment is entering the ETFs.

In a week’s time, institutional 13F filings will disclose not only holdings in these spot BTC ETFs but also stakes in major Bitcoin corporate holder MicroStrategy (MSTR). Kendrick anticipates further evidence that key investors are enhancing their Bitcoin allocations.

“I must express concern that my initial target of $120,000 for the second quarter could be too conservative,” Kendrick remarked.