Bitcoin exchange inflows indicate strong institutional involvement with minimal selling from long-term holders.

Over the past month, Bitcoin exchange inflows have primarily been influenced by recently moved supply, with little participation from long-term holders.

A significant portion, nearly 75%, of daily deposits on major exchanges consisted of coins that had been transferred within the last 24 hours, indicating a pattern of rapid repositioning rather than strategic selling.

This high turnover, characterized by fresh outputs and significant transactions, implies that the majority of immediate selling pressure comes from professional entities adjusting liquidity or managing their holdings, rather than widespread sell-offs from long-term investors.

The trend of fresh supply is evident throughout the collected data. On average, coins under 24 hours old made up 75.3% of daily inflows from April 6 to May 6, reaching a peak of 86.2% on May 6.

An increase in the movement of short-term coins was noted on May 3, where the 1–7 day age band rose to 44.3%. On this day, movements of coins aged longer, yet still recent, surpassed same-day transactions for the only time in the observed period.

Despite these fluctuations, the overarching trend persists: a dominant amount of inflows is attributable to coins that are either recently created or have circulated recently, rather than older, dormant assets.

In contrast, long-term holders have remained largely inactive during this timeframe. Coins held for over a year made up merely 0.7% of total inflows on average, with a brief spike to 7.6% on April 10, but generally staying below 1%. This inactivity from older wallets suggests that large holders are opting for patience and are not capitalizing on recent price increases, ultimately reducing the risk of a sudden influx of supply that could negatively impact prices in the near term.

Examining the value distribution of these inflows sheds further light on their nature. Transfers between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC have constituted a significant portion of the inflow value, averaging 47.8% over the last week, with peaks of 67.8% on May 3. Such large transfers indicate that the activity is driven by institutional players, custodians, or market makers rather than retail investors.

Additionally, the 1,000–10,000 BTC category grew from an average share of 7.9% in mid-April to 10.7% in early May, with a notable spike to 30.5% on April 29. While rare, a single transfer exceeding 10,000 BTC on April 25 accounted for 2.1% of that day’s total volume. Large movements like this are uncommon and likely reflect internal adjustments or transfers rather than straightforward sell-offs.

In contrast, retail involvement seems minimal, with inflows below 1 BTC averaging only 3% during this time frame. This low percentage reinforces the notion that current exchange activities are predominantly influenced by institutional players, rather than a surge of smaller traders or panic selling. It also highlights a disconnect between retail sentiment and the overarching market dynamics, which are being primarily shaped by significant movements.

When considering both age and value together, a distinct pattern can be observed. Most exchange deposits originate from coins transferred on the same day, and these transactions are increasingly happening in larger quantities. This mix of recency and scale points to automated trading or activities from desks, such as arbitrage and liquidity provisioning. This behavior contrasts with previous market highs or phases of panic when older supplies were more prevalent, and smaller holders were more active.

The continuous absence of older coins indicates that long-term holders are not capitalizing on recent market movements to sell. Instead, exchange deposits appear consistently linked to professional trading cycles. The prevalence of large transfers suggests that any prolonged price movements will likely require further shifts in the age distribution of coins or an uptick in retail-sized inflows.

Recently, the resurgence of large whale-sized inflows in early May correlated with developments in Bitcoin derivatives markets, such as increased open interest and directional positioning. The growth in the 1,000–10,000 BTC segment might signal early signs of strategic reallocations or impending large transactions, especially as institutional interest and ETF flows continue to dominate spot trading volumes.