Bitcoin Whale Entry Prices Show Significant Divergence – Confidence Grows at Elevated Levels

Bitcoin has jumped to $104,300, confirming the upward trend and supporting the optimistic forecasts anticipated for 2025. This increase positions BTC within the upper range, with the next significant hurdle clearly visible: the all-time peak at $109,000. The market’s vigor stems from robust technical movements and a gradually uplifting sentiment, with BTC at the forefront of the cryptocurrency surge while altcoins follow closely.

On-chain analytics from CryptoQuant strengthens this positive perspective. One notable indicator reveals the escalating confidence among major holders: the stark difference between the Realized Price of new and existing whales has reached $59.7K. Specifically, newcomers in the whale category have entered at an average price of $91.9K, while the older whales maintain a basis of $32.2K. This represents a 185% relative difference compared to the long-term holder (LTH) baseline—a significant gap.

This considerable discrepancy indicates a fresh influx of committed buyers entering the market at substantially higher prices. Unlike the cautious purchasing by whales during previous market lows, this phase illustrates a strong conviction in ongoing price increases, even at premium values. It’s a clear indication that institutional fear of missing out (FOMO) is perhaps beginning to manifest.

Currently, Bitcoin is confronting resistance near the $104,000 level—a threshold that might require time to surpass, as it marks a vital barrier before entering price discovery beyond the all-time record close to $109,000. The recent surge has demonstrated exceptional resilience, but as BTC stabilizes beneath its previous high, some selling pressure is anticipated. A successful break could result in a swift upward movement past $109K; however, failure to achieve this may lead to short-term consolidation or a pullback.

Leading analyst Axel Adler has offered crucial insights into on-chain dynamics on X, emphasizing the shifting mentality among Bitcoin’s largest stakeholders. Adler notes that the stark difference in Realized Price between new whales ($91.9K) and their older counterparts ($32.2K) is $59.7K, showcasing a 185% relative difference to the LTH basis. This sharp divergence indicates that the new “whales” are entering the market at nearly triple the price of earlier participants.

In comparison, this difference was only 62% in November 2022, suggestive of more restrained accumulation near the market’s lowest point. The current escalation to 185% reflects heightened confidence and FOMO, with prominent buyers willing to accumulate even at elevated prices. For reference, during the peak of the cycle in 2021 at $63K, the spread widened to an impressive 437%.

This trend indicates that the market is entering a more assertive accumulation phase, where confidence in rising prices is driving demand, despite higher costs. If bulls can absorb the resistance at $104K, it may initiate a parabolic movement—propelled not only by momentum but also by the conviction of both retail and institutional investors anticipating a new Bitcoin record.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $103,000 after achieving a peak of $104,300 earlier today. The 4-hour chart indicates BTC facing resistance at $103,600, aligning with a notable supply zone from late December 2024 and early January 2025. This area served as a prior rejection point during the previous major rally and is now being reevaluated as potential resistance.

BTC’s recent rise from the $87K–$90K consolidation area has been forceful, breaching both the 200 EMA and 200 SMA (currently at $91,806 and $89,400, respectively) with substantial volume. This confirms bullish momentum and the continuation of the trend, indicating that buyers remain assertive. However, the current range between $103K and $104K holds historical significance, and bulls may need to withstand selling pressure before pursuing a move toward the all-time high near $109K.

If BTC can consolidate above $100K and maintain this level as new support, it would bolster the case for continued upward movement. Conversely, if it fails to cleanly break above $103,600, a short-term retracement could occur. Overall, market structure appears bullish, but this resistance area is crucial in deciding whether Bitcoin will enter a price discovery phase or pause for accumulation.