XRP Chart Reaches Key Point That Could Lead to Significant Gains, Analyst Cautions

A recent update on X highlights the perspective of market analyst Dom (@traderview2), who indicates that a specific technical line is crucial for determining XRP’s next movement. His six-hour TradingView chart illustrates the Binance XRP/USDT pair peaking at between $2.48 and $2.50 overnight but subsequently stalling at the volume-weighted average price linked to the all-time high from 2018 (noted as the “ATH VWAP”, shown in green).

Since late January, this gradually declining VWAP has acted as a ceiling for every substantial rally attempt and has led to swift rejections on four separate occasions.

The most recent effort saw a temporary rise to $2.4082 (session high) before settling at $2.3644, creating a distinct upper wick just below the VWAP. Dom attributes this market reaction to the pair’s consistent technical characteristics, while noting that it has also regained a significant intermediate pivot: the quarterly VWAP around $2.30.

This specific value is now undergoing “back-testing” during the trading day; successfully maintaining this level would place the price between converging support at $2.30 and resistance at the ATH VWAP near $2.48-2.50. A decisive close above this latter level, in Dom’s view, would “open the sky for a larger breakout” by eliminating the last obstacle that has restricted XRP since its peak of around $3.50 in early January.

Is a Major XRP Breakout on the Horizon?

Order-flow data supports a bullish outlook. Dom has been monitoring aggregated flows by trade size and has found that transactions involving 10,000–50,000 XRP and over 50,000 XRP have turned strongly positive in the past three days, while smaller trades (100–1,000 and 1,000–10,000 XRP) have shown net-negative flow. “Smaller investors have exited during the rise, and larger funds have backed it,” he noted, explaining that the dataset does not differentiate between retail and institutional wallets but suggests “very unlikely” implications for exchange internalization.

Additional Insights

The broader market dynamics reinforce the idea of a burgeoning trend. A CoinGlass heat map of perpetual-swap annualized funding rates, which Dom shared, showcases twenty-seven large-cap altcoins from November to May, highlighting two significant periods – late November to December 9 and the initial weeks of May.

The December grouping aligns with the “peak of altcoins,” while he posits that the current cluster signals the most intense speculative activity since then. “This is the strongest movement in the altcoin arena since November, and it looks like this in terms of funding… I mentioned it last week and I’ll reiterate: it’s a rally that many dislike,” Dom states.

Under these circumstances, the immediate technical landscape remains binary. XRP must first maintain its position above the $2.30 quarterly VWAP, which recently transitioned from a resistance to a support level in the past two days. Preserving this support would encourage traders to test the ATH VWAP threshold. Conversely, losing this position would revert the momentum back toward the mid-$2.00s range that characterized much of April.

If bulls are finally able to establish a foothold above the declining VWAP – something they have not accomplished this year – the analyst foresees minimal overhead supply until the mid-$2.70s, marking the lower boundary of the distribution block from late January. As Dom states, “Establishing firmly above the ATH VWAP clears the way for a significant breakout.”

At the time of reporting, XRP was trading at $2.46.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com