ETH-BTC rises 38% from April low in its first significant rally of 2025.

In May, the ETH/BTC ratio experienced a resurgence, reversing several months of Ethereum’s notable lag behind Bitcoin.

After hitting an 11-month low of 0.01805 on April 21, the ETH/BTC ratio surged to 0.02501 by May 15, showcasing a remarkable 38.6% increase within a month and a 17% gain over the last week. This sharp rise represents Ethereum’s first display of relative strength since early February, prompting a renewed discussion about its potential to reclaim some of the losses sustained at the beginning of 2025.

This rebound coincided with Ethereum surpassing the significant $2,000 mark for the first time since early March. From May 8 to May 15, Ethereum rose by 15.8%, jumping from $2,206 to $2,554. In contrast, Bitcoin saw a slight decline of 0.9%, slipping from $103,641 to $102,680 during the same timeframe. This divergence indicates that the increase in the ETH/BTC ratio stems from genuine investments in Ethereum, rather than merely benefiting from Bitcoin’s performance.

Despite remaining 55.6% below its June 2024 peak of 0.05631, the shift in momentum is significant. The ETH/BTC ratio is now comfortably trading above its 30-day simple moving average of 0.02031, after having spent a considerable amount of time below that mark. This recent strength, with twelve consecutive closes above the moving average, signifies a departure from the decline observed during March and April, where Ethereum lagged not only behind Bitcoin but the broader market too.

Several indicators suggest that this upward movement may have further room to grow. Initially, the ETH/BTC rally originated from an extremely low point that has historically been linked with capitulation and subsequent recoveries. The 0.0180 low recorded in April reflects levels last observed during the March 2020 market crash, which saw broad sell-offs triggered by pandemic-related fears.

Additionally, Ethereum’s rise above $2,000 appears to have sparked a renewed interest from speculators that was previously lacking. The most significant single-day gain for ETH/BTC this month (a 7.1% increase on May 9) coincided directly with Ethereum reclaiming the $2,000 threshold, indicating that this level acted as a vital psychological trigger for traders.

Importantly, this rebound seems to be unique to Ethereum. Bitcoin’s open interest, funding rates, and perpetual contracts positioning have remained relatively low in May, lacking the fervor typically associated with an alt-season. This targeted enthusiasm suggests that catalysts directly related to Ethereum, such as anticipated ETF discussions, forthcoming roadmap developments, or heightened institutional interest, may be propelling this upward trend, rather than an overall risk-on sentiment. If this is the case, Ethereum may continue to excel even if Bitcoin stabilizes or moves sideways as summer approaches.

Nevertheless, the recovery is delicate, and failing to maintain the reclaimed 0.024–0.025 level could raise doubts about whether the current rally is fueled by new investment or merely the result of short covering and tactical adjustments. Markets often exhibit intense short squeezes after significant selloffs, only to see a relapse once buying pressure diminishes. The coming weeks will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of this rally, especially with macroeconomic volatility expected to return as US CPI data is released in June along with important Federal Reserve meeting minutes.

Even with the recent recovery, ETH/BTC’s sharp decline from last year underscores how significantly sentiment has shifted. From the June 2024 peak of 0.05631, the ratio plunged over 68% to reach its April low, a drop steeper than that of many alternative coins in the meantime. Much of Ethereum’s weakness in late 2024 and early 2025 can be attributed to Bitcoin’s dominance, as the success of spot Bitcoin ETFs diverted funds toward Bitcoin, leaving Ethereum at a disadvantage. With BTC/USD facing resistance below $105,000 and ETF inflows leveling off, Ethereum may finally be poised for some upward movement.

Yet, the ratio still has a long way to go. To revert to its January 2025 beginning point of 0.0355, ETH/BTC needs to rise another 42% from current values. For those holding Ethereum long-term, the recent rebound is promising, but it is not definitive. A broader confirmation would require Ethereum to maintain its outperformance in the face of increased market volatility and renewed interest in Bitcoin.

In the near term, Ethereum’s capacity to retain its advancements against Bitcoin amid potential macro turbulence will likely influence the market dynamics as summer approaches. A strong weekly close above 0.025 would signify the most robust finish since early March and could potentially draw systematic investors (funds that rebalance crypto holdings based on market capitalization or equal weight) back towards Ethereum.