Expert Predicts Bitcoin Will Reach $1 Million by 2028 Amid Capital Controls Implementation

In a recent piece, Arthur Hayes, who co-founded Maelstrom, highlights the troubling economic disparities in the U.S. and its dangerous dependence on external capital. He argues that only capital controls can serve as a viable political resolution to restore balance, rather than tariffs. Through his “Boiling Frog Theory,” Hayes anticipates a gradual implementation of financial restrictions on foreign investors, forecasting that this will propel Bitcoin to achieve a $1 million valuation by 2028.

His essay, titled Fatty Fatty Boom Boom, opens with a striking analogy: the bloated financial system of America is compared to the obesity epidemic, sustained by low-cost processed products and temporary solutions that maintain a faulty status quo. Hayes suggests that “the American economy has been compromised by excessive money printing,” tracing these imbalances back to the Federal Reserve’s formation in 1913 and the shift from natural economic cycles to a continuous stimulus approach.

Why Capital Controls Could Propel Bitcoin to $1 Million

Hayes argues that tariffs lack both political efficacy and structural strength. Even during Trump’s tenure, any application of tariffs would be mitigated by bilateral exceptions and geopolitical trade-offs, allowing nations like Vietnam and Mexico to exploit loopholes. He explains, “Without a universal tariff, certain countries will always become transit points for trade,” highlighting how China bypasses semiconductor restrictions through third-party channels.

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Instead, Hayes advocates for capital controls, particularly taxes on foreign ownership of U.S. financial instruments, as the only strategy offering meaningful economic consequence and political advantage. He suggests implementing a 2% annual tax on foreign-held stocks, bonds, and real estate, which together amount to roughly $33 trillion. This measure could potentially eliminate federal income taxes for the majority of Americans, thus presenting a “winning political strategy” for Trump’s administration. “Foreign capital can either remain, pay the tax, and contribute to eliminating income taxes… or exit, leading to a resurgence in American manufacturing,” Hayes claims.

However, if foreign capital exits, what will take its place? Hayes does not mince words: the U.S. will resort to more money printing. “Remember the ‘Brrr’ sound of the printing press? You know what that means,” he humorously refers to the expected return of quantitative easing and relaxed regulatory measures. He expresses the belief that the Federal Reserve is already facilitating this quiet monetization by targeting long-term treasury bonds for QE. “Powell is firmly in control and isn’t going anywhere,” he states, capturing his critique of Federal policies.

He posits that the result of this capital flight and the subsequent monetary response will be a decline in the real value of U.S. treasuries, leading to a shift in global investment towards decentralized, censorship-resistant assets like Bitcoin. Unlike gold, which depends on intermediaries in digital transactions, Bitcoin serves as a direct digital bearer asset that functions outside conventional financial systems. “Bitcoin remains the ultimate refuge for global capital looking to flee America and similar environments,” he asserts.

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Hayes also observes that even the Trump administration seems to support Bitcoin and gold ideologically, citing tariff removals on gold and a relaxation of regulations surrounding cryptocurrencies. With these assets potentially being elevated to reserve status, Bitcoin could absorb capital exiting dollar-based investments.

He projects that if even 10% of foreign-held U.S. portfolio assets—approximately $3.3 trillion—were to migrate to Bitcoin, the resulting demand would cause a significant price surge beyond mere mathematical projections. “If ten times the capital tried to enter the market, it would lead to a much greater price increase than tenfold,” he warns, highlighting the inelastic supply and the reluctance of long-term holders to sell. The outcome? A potential ascension to $1 million per Bitcoin by the time of the 2028 U.S. presidential elections.

Additionally, Hayes discloses that Maelstrom took an aggressive long position during the financial turmoil of early April and is currently diversifying into promising altcoins, which he believes provide genuine value and returns for token holders. Nonetheless, he cautions about the potential for market fluctuations, pointing out the flexible nature of Trump’s strategy and lingering opposition within the administration.

For Hayes, however, the path is evident. Capital controls are no longer mere speculation—they are transitioning to unavoidable policy. Consequently, Bitcoin stands out as the asset best situated to leverage the transition from the decline of traditional financial structures.

At the time of reporting, BTC was priced at $102,377.

Image created with DALL.E, chart sourced from TradingView.com