Bitcoin Needs to Surpass $107,000 to Validate Breakout or Risk Falling to $98,000

Following a significant surge earlier this month, the price of Bitcoin has leveled off just above $103,000, maintaining a tight consolidation range for the past week. Observing the daily chart, one can see persistent resistance slightly above $107,000, as recent candlestick formations indicate a lack of direction and subdued momentum.

Further Insights

This market behavior might represent a temporary pause before another upward movement. Alternatively, it could signal a reversal toward $98,000.

Daily Close Above $107K to Signal a Breakout

Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation around the $103,000 mark has extended beyond a week, suggesting an imminent breakout in either direction. Recently, analyst Ali Martinez highlighted through social media the necessity of achieving a daily close above $107,000 for a bullish outlook on Bitcoin.

His analysis demonstrates that the price has tested this critical level several times since December 2024 but has failed to establish a sustained daily closure above it. This has resulted in a horizontal barrier just below $108,000, where even Bitcoin’s peak of $108,786 on January 20 failed to maintain a close above $107,000.

Martinez suggests that a definitive close above this barrier could pave the way for potential upward momentum toward new all-time highs. Nevertheless, he cautions that until this mark is clearly surpassed, traders should remain vigilant and not rush into positions.

Image From X: @ali_charts

Possible Bitcoin Trap and Liquidity Sweep Towards $98K

In a different analysis shared on TradingView, crypto expert TehThomas offers a more cautious perspective on Bitcoin. He points out that Bitcoin has been confined within a tight range of approximately $100,000 to $105,800 for over eight days.

Using a liquidity-based approach, he suggests this range may function as a trap, luring both long and short traders into early breakout positions. His 4-hour candlestick analysis reveals a prominent consolidation pattern, with prices struggling to break through either end, while liquidity accumulates above $105,800 and below $100,000.

TehThomas believes the equal highs near $105,800 may serve as bait for breakout long positions. He anticipates that Bitcoin could briefly surpass these highs before making a swift downward move toward the lower demand area between $98,000 and $97,500.

This target, identified as a significant unmitigated fair value gap on his chart, is where he expects the price to respond next after both sides’ liquidity has been exhausted.

Image From TradingView: TehThomas

However, this downside move towards $98,000 would become invalid if Bitcoin can maintain a position above $105,800 and demonstrate robust volume accompanied by follow-through.

Further Insights

As of the latest updates, Bitcoin was trading at $103,914, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.06% over the previous 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView