Is a Significant Surge or Decline Approaching?
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Dogecoin’s value appears to be at a pivotal point for a potential rally, but sustained momentum is crucial.
Based on a four-hour chart analyzed by Josh Olszewicz, the price has been moving within a clearly defined falling wedge since reaching a local maximum of $0.25941 on May 13. The top and bottom lines of this wedge are progressively lowering, capturing successive highs and lows, with the lower boundary currently providing support while the upper line restricts the market around $0.219.
Within this constriction, Olszewicz implements an Ichimoku system with short-cycle parameters (20/60/120/30). The latest completed candle — recorded on May 17 at 08:00 UTC — closed at $0.21532, fluctuating between $0.21187 and $0.21676. This closure positioned the price firmly within the cloud, indicating a state of equilibrium. Internally, the Tenkan-sen is at $0.21427, the Kijun-sen at $0.22524, Senkou Span A at $0.22102, and Senkou Span B at $0.21184, forming a remarkably narrow range of short-term reference points.
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The area between the wedge’s lower line and Span B around $0.212–0.214 constitutes a robust support zone, already yielding two intraday bounces. On the other hand, the Kijun-sen and the descending wedge’s resistance meet close to $0.225, establishing a noticeable ceiling. While the price remains confined between these two levels, momentum traders can expect a low-volatility phase; a definitive break, especially a four-hour close above the upper line, would fulfill all criteria for a bullish resolution of the falling wedge and suggests a return towards the peak from May 13.
Dogecoin Still Shows Strength
Cantonese Cat’s weekly analysis highlights a larger trend. In his diagram, Dogecoin has recently achieved its first weekly close above the Bull Market Support Band — which comprises the 20-week simple moving average surrounded by a two-sigma envelope — since early February. This band currently ranges from $0.21617 at the lower end to $0.22378 at the upper end; last week’s candle closed at $0.22387, just above the upper limit, transforming what was once resistance into tentative support.
This break occurs as the Bollinger upper band continues to decline from the February peak around $0.35, signaling that volatility on the weekly chart has only just started to contract after an extended bearish phase. The midline of the Bollinger bands, corresponding with the 20-week SMA and the top of the Bull Market Support Band, serves as a crucial pivot point for the upcoming week.
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A second consecutive weekly close above $0.22378 would affirm the first as not merely a fleeting spike and might inspire trend-followers to target a medium-term advance toward the mid-$0.30s, in line with the curve of the upper band.
Together, these two timeframes outline a distinct path. Short-term traders will watch for a breakout from the descending wedge; a bullish break above $0.219 would quickly redirect attention to prior resistance at $0.24-0.26, while failure to maintain above $0.205 could accelerate the decline towards the April pivot at $0.185.
Currently, DOGE is trading at $0.217.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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