XRP ETF Shows 83% Likelihood of Approval—Is the SEC Losing Control?

Optimism among investors regarding a spot XRP ETF has surged significantly. Recent data suggests that the likelihood of approval is at 83%. This comes despite the ongoing delays from the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which continues to push back its decisions. Observers in the industry believe that the regulator is merely utilizing its complete review timeline.

Forecasts and Schedule

James Seyffart from Bloomberg has noted that the SEC typically employs the full 240 days to evaluate 19b-4 applications. He mentioned that the organization requested an additional 45 days on May 20 to decide on Bitwise’s proposal for Ether staking, extending the deadline to May 22.

From his updates on X, it appears that nearly all current spot ETF applications are now due for final decisions in October. Consequently, early approvals during the summer seem quite improbable.

Comparison of Spot and Futures Products

On May 19, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced an XRP futures contract for the first time. Shortly thereafter, Volatility Shares listed the XRPI futures ETF on Nasdaq, and Tectrium also launched a 2x Long Daily XRP ETF for those seeking added leverage.

These offerings allow traders to speculate on XRP’s future pricing within a regulated framework. While not equivalent to a spot ETF, they indicate a rising interest from significant investors.

Institutional Participation via ETFs

Reports indicate that Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, discussed the importance of ETFs on the company’s podcast. He noted that ETFs provide a way for Wall Street to invest in cryptocurrency without dealing with exchanges or private wallets.

He pointed out that the Bitcoin ETF quickly amassed $1 billion in assets, hitting $10 billion in record time. This performance, he insisted, sets a precedent for similar XRP-linked products.

Market Perspective and Caution

Industry rumors and SEC documentation suggest that such delays are common. The commission has already postponed decisions on Grayscale’s XRP-backed fund as well as a Solana ETF.

Analysts caution that probabilities in prediction markets can be quite volatile. A current 83% likelihood could diminish if the SEC raises further inquiries or requests additional comment periods. It’s advisable for investors to monitor approaching deadlines as October nears.

Enthusiasm and Waiting

The excitement surrounding a potential XRP spot ETF reflects genuine interest, though historical patterns indicate that regulators often proceed cautiously. Futures ETFs like XRPI provide a pathway into XRP’s market, albeit with complexities such as contango and price premiums. For now, both institutional investors and retail traders will closely observe the SEC’s timelines—even if that means practicing a bit of patience.