Elliot Wave Forecasts a 50% Drop in ADA Price — Should You Exit Now?

Cardano (ADA) has shown a relatively consistent upward movement in recent weeks. Despite experiencing resistance at the $0.84 price mark again last week, the current trading activity remains robust with only a slight dip in the last 24 hours. Nonetheless, technical analysis based on Elliott Wave principles suggests that a significant price downturn may be on the horizon for ADA, potentially targeting as low as $0.42 in the coming weeks.

Bearish Elliott Wave Analysis Indicates Potential Wave C Drop

Based on the Elliott Wave analysis featured in a technical review on a trading platform, Cardano (ADA) appears to be concluding a B-wave correction that has been developing over the months from April to June 2025. This B-wave is part of a broader corrective phase, and although it may seem impulsive on smaller timeframes, the Elliott wave paradigm suggests that it is essentially a trap preceding the final C-wave downturn.

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According to this projection, the price of Cardano may soon surge into a sharp decline that could reach the $0.42 area, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level tracked from the previous impulse.

This Elliott wave count suggests that this ABC structure is part of a larger Wave 4 correction preceding a bullish Wave 5. It is crucial to note that the model predicts ADA should not dip below $0.40, which represents the pinnacle of the initial significant wave in the overarching bullish pattern. A drop below this point could jeopardize the integrity of the long-term forecast.

Should Investors Consider Exiting Cardano?

If the technical projections hold true, the anticipated decline to $0.42 would entail a 50% drop from Cardano’s current value. While this may sound alarming, particularly for short-term investors, it also presents a concealed opportunity.

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As illustrated in the ADA 4H candlestick chart above, the expected Wave C decline to $0.42 would likely be succeeded by a bullish impulse Wave 5, pushing the price beyond the $1 threshold once more. Specifically, targets aim toward $1.6. Thus, if ADA indeed retraces towards the $0.42–$0.40 range, it could create a favorable accumulation opportunity prior to the next upward movement.

While this negative outlook is well-grounded in Elliott Wave principles, it is important to clarify that this is not a guaranteed result. ADA and other significant cryptocurrencies are currently highly sensitive to movements in Bitcoin’s price. If Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory and reaches new all-time highs imminently, the predicted ADA correction could either be softened or entirely negated. Therefore, it will be intriguing to observe the ADA price trends in the upcoming days.

At this moment, ADA is priced at $0.7706, experiencing a decline of 0.2% over the last 24 hours.