Retail Is Out – Who’s Driving Bitcoin’s Next Surge?

Current trading activity in the Bitcoin market reveals that retail investors are largely inactive, exhibiting minimal engagement and lower involvement than in past cycles. This change in investor dynamics suggests that future market movements may arise from unexpected sources.

Not Retail, Here’s Who’s Stepping In Instead

A recent statement made by Julio Moreno, who leads research at CryptoQuant, indicated that the anticipated next surge in the crypto market might not originate from retail investors but from smaller or emerging companies and funds that seek to replicate the Bitcoin accumulation approach of Michael Saylor.

Moreno raised concerns about whether these organizations have the psychological resilience to endure significant volatility, pointing out the difficulty in maintaining belief during a possible 90% decline in their asset valuations.

Several companies outside the crypto sector have begun to adopt Bitcoin as part of their strategic reserves, aiming to mirror the impressive returns seen from this approach. Notably, Japan’s Metaplanet has emerged as a significant player, implementing a Bitcoin-focused strategy and holding approximately 7,800 BTC, as per data from Bitcoin Treasuries.

In parallel, Boyaa Interactive, listed in Hong Kong, has accumulated 2,410 BTC thus far, while Semler Scientific, a medical diagnostics firm in the U.S., has added 3,808 BTC to its assets, also following the accumulation strategy.

Long-Term Holder Conviction Remains Strong

Recent data indicates a noticeable absence of retail involvement in Bitcoin, despite rising prices. On-chain metrics reveal negative netflows from exchanges, implying that Bitcoin is consistently leaving trading platforms. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has dipped below 1.0, suggesting persistent aggressive selling, likely by retail investors scaling back their exposure.

Conversely, long-term holders are displaying robust conviction, with their spending activity currently at its lowest since September 2024. According to analyst Axel Adler Jr. from CryptoQuant, this group of BTC holders has acquired 300,000 BTC over the past 20 days, signaling strong confidence and potentially hinting at a positive outlook for the asset’s price trends.