The $300K Bitcoin Lottery Expands Further as BTC Traders Pursue Gains – Is It Time to Reassess?

This month, CoinDesk pointed out the increasing interest in the $300,000 Bitcoin call option listed on Deribit, highlighting it as one of the top choices for optimistic traders ahead of the crucial June quarter expiration.

Currently, this bet has surged in popularity for the upcoming quarterly expiration, further solidifying its status as a “lottery ticket” for those expecting a Bitcoin price increase exceeding $300,000 by the end of next month.

As of the latest updates, the $300,000 call option is the leading choice for the June 27 expiration, featuring a notional open interest that has risen to over $600 million, up from $484 million three weeks prior, as reported by Deribit. Notional open interest refers to the total value of outstanding contracts that remain active at a certain point in time. On Deribit, a single options contract denotes one Bitcoin.

Lin Chen, Deribit’s Head of Asia Business Development, mentioned, “The June $300K Bitcoin call options have become the most popular strike in terms of open interest, showcasing the strong speculative stance of traders looking for further upward movement.”

Chen elaborated that “The remarkable trading volumes and concentrated positions in options indicate growing confidence in the market, along with the likelihood of increased volatility in the near future.”

Last week, Deribit’s notional options open interest reached a record high of $42.5 billion. This trend is also reflected in the platform’s newly introduced block RFQ (Request for Quote) system, achieving nearly $1 billion in daily volume.

A call option provides the buyer with the right, but not the obligation, to acquire the underlying asset, Bitcoin, at a predetermined price within a specified timeframe. Buyers of call options tend to have a bullish market outlook.

The $300,000 call option set to expire on June 27 suggests that traders believe Bitcoin’s price will triple from the current $110,000 to over $300,000 before the first half concludes.

This prediction may seem extravagant with just about four weeks remaining in the first half of the year. However, this has been the prevailing attitude on Deribit, where traders are increasingly opting for short-term options to capitalize on potential gains.

This shift is evident in the demand for short-duration call options being priced higher than their longer-term counterparts, which traditionally exhibit the reverse trend.

The chart provided by Amberdata shows that risk reversals are generally positive, signaling a preference for bullish call options. Yet, the short-duration calls carry a higher price compared to longer-duration ones, which is not typically normal.

This pattern highlights a growing interest in rapid bullish positions among market actors.

Lin Chen noted, “The three-day Bitcoin Conference 2025 is kicking off in Las Vegas today, leading to speculations regarding potential optimistic announcements emerging from the event.”

Counter-Trend Indicator

The increasing demand for short-term calls could serve as a counter-trend indicator, suggesting speculative behavior often materializes near market peaks, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.

Thielen remarked that the options market is raising flags, as seven-day call options are trading at a 10% premium over put options.

“The options market is indicating a warning: The skew for Bitcoin, which gauges the difference in implied volatility between points and calls, has plummeted to almost -10%, showing that calls anticipate much more volatility compared to puts,” Thielen pointed out in a client communication.

He added, “This suggests traders are vigorously pursuing upside opportunities while neglecting to hedge against downside risks. Historically, such extreme skew values often reveal peak bullish sentiment, acting as a classic counter-trend indicator.”