All Attention Focused on Las Vegas and June

Bitcoin remains in a range of $107,000 to $111,000, a narrow corridor that conceals an options market filled with uncertainty. A report from QCP Capital in Singapore indicates that this apparent calm is misleading. They note that Bitcoin’s response to recent macroeconomic events has been muted, despite a significant rally in equities, attributing this stability to ongoing institutional investments in Bitcoin ETFs that are keeping spot prices steady.

Is Bitcoin Experiencing a Calm Before the Volatility?

However, this stability hasn’t extended to derivatives trading: QCP notes that “front-end implied volatility remains strong” as Bitcoin consolidates within a tight range, with traders actively seeking protection against price downturns as the Bitcoin Conference kicks off in Las Vegas later today.

Additional Insights

According to QCP, the upcoming three-day conference—featuring speakers like US Vice President JD Vance, Strategy chairman Michael Saylor, and Donald Trump’s sons Eric and Donald Jr.—could trigger near-term volatility. “The ongoing high levels of near-term volatility indicate that traders are adjusting their strategies in response to potential market-moving news,” they explain.

Past conferences linger in traders’ memories: a keynote by President Trump last year caused one-day implied volatility to spike above 90 before rapidly falling, leading to a nearly 30 percent drop in spot Bitcoin within a couple of days. “This incident remains fresh in the minds of traders,” QCP cautions, albeit assigning a low likelihood to a similar recurrence.

The current positioning data suggests a cautious approach. Open interest in perpetual futures has decreased over the last day, and funding rates are returning to neutral levels—signals of a defensive market stance according to QCP. Retail traders who typically favor leverage are reducing their risk exposure, with trader James Wynn noticeably cutting back on long positions, reflecting a persistent demand for short-term protective options.

However, ETF inflows continue to support the market. U.S. spot Bitcoin products accumulated 7,869 BTC last Friday, marking the largest single-day inflow since late April, based on data from Glassnode. During the week ending May 23, net inflows reached $2.75 billion, the second-highest weekly total for the year. QCP argues these investments provide fundamental backing but may not be sufficient to counterbalance short-term price fluctuations influenced by news events.

Unverified rumors that Trump Media is considering a $3 billion cryptocurrency raise exemplify the heightened sensitivity to news. “Market reaction to headlines has intensified,” QCP points out. They expect Bitcoin to maintain its current price range until the completion of the Las Vegas event, after which they predict a tightening of front-end volatility as risk premiums decline.

Potential for Growth Until Early June?

Not everyone is convinced that volatility will diminish quickly. A macro-cycle analyst known as Astronomer (@astronomer_zero), whose predictions accurately pinpointed Bitcoin’s March low and February high, remains strongly bullish. “This is not a prediction of a peak in June,” he states on X. “I believe we will see an upward trend from here; this is a significant distinction.”

Additional Insights

Astronomer suggests that historically, Bitcoin trends upward until about ten days before an FOMC meeting, with the next meeting slated for June 18. “I anticipate continued price increases leading up to June 8–18,” he explains, noting that psychological weekly cycles align with his outlook and he is “looking for long positions during short-term pullbacks.”

His analysis is grounded in a broader 24-week cycle that he initiated from the breakout in October 2024. “We are only in week six,” he observes, suggesting that this upward phase has yet to peak. Although he acknowledges that alternative cryptocurrencies often lag behind Bitcoin, he emphasizes that capitalizing on momentum is crucial: “Staying aligned with momentum as long as possible prepares you better for any early shorts.”

For now, Bitcoin’s prices remain surprisingly stable, even as the options market anticipates turbulence. The direction of any potential volatility—whether upward or downward—could hinge on statements made at the conference or shifts in policy communicated from the Marriner Eccles Building in the weeks to come. In the meantime, this calm state is precisely what unnerves seasoned traders, fueling demand for hedging services that capitalize on fear.

As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $110,661.

Featured image produced with DALL.E, chart sourced from TradingView.com.