Analyst Predicts 70% Probability of Breakthrough

An independent market analyst, EGRAG CRYPTO, shared a revised XRP/USD weekly chart. This illustration, based on Bitfinex data, suggests that the recent upward movement in XRP since July 2024 resembles the flagpole of a typical bull-flag continuation pattern, proposing that the following ten-week sideways movement established a nearly perfect, downward-sloping consolidation channel, marked by magenta lines.

XRP Ready for a Breakout

The analyst noted that the likelihood of a breakout to the upside stands at approximately 67–70 percent, referencing extensive pattern-recognition research that supports the statistical advantage of this setup. Currently, XRP is trading around $2.30, indicated on the chart by a blue dotted horizontal line intersecting the flag’s body.

Supplementary Insights

Below this price point, a white line at $1.50 indicates the breakout level from late 2024, serving as primary higher-time-frame support. A deeper red line at approximately $0.60 represents the foundation from which this current cycle initiated. Overlaying the entire structure is a rising yellow moving average, consistent with the 20-week EMA (currently at $2.21), reinforcing what Egrag defines as a “still-positive long-term trend bias” for the market.

From this baseline, the analyst identifies three targeted price objectives. “For long-term breakouts, I favor logarithmic charts, particularly in cryptocurrency, due to its rapid growth potential,” he stated. Based on this, a logarithmic projection extrapolates the full height of the flagpole, hitting a target of $18.00. A linear approach, which treats every dollar gain uniformly, yields a considerably lower target of $5.50. By utilizing a “liquidity-adjusted average – my preferred method for crypto targets,” Egrag arrives at a figure of $11.75.

Supplementary Insights

Given the relatively thin order books for digital assets, the analyst incorporates a variability band of fifteen to twenty percent. This expands the logarithmic target to approximately $20.70–$21.60, the average to $13.51–$14.10, and the linear target to $6.33–$6.60. “I generally apply a 15–20 percent variability, as crypto liquidity is still lower compared to traditional markets, meaning targets can fluctuate significantly,” he advised.

A disclaimer prominently displayed on the graphic emphasizes that the figures and targets are “for simulation purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.” Nonetheless, Egrag’s strategy appears straightforward: as long as XRP maintains support around the mid-flag zone at $2.30 and crucially the structural pivot at $1.50, he believes a breakout could propel the token into double digits, with a primary logarithmic objective situated just beneath the psychologically significant $20 mark.

At the time of reporting, XRP was trading at $2.28, resting just below the upper trendline of the bull flag. A close above this resistance could rapidly drive XRP’s price towards the Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.5 and 0.618 at $2.50 and $2.71, respectively.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com