Bitcoin Rises 15% in a Month; Analyst Warns of MVRV Resistance Threshold

Bitcoin is trading at a price of $109,000, reflecting a slight decline of 0.6% in the last 24 hours. Despite this minor pullback, the overall market trend remains positive, with Bitcoin achieving roughly a 15% increase over the previous month.

This follows Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high slightly above $111,000 recently, sustaining its strong upward trend throughout Q2 2025.

Burak Kesmeci, a contributor to a prominent analysis platform, recently examined the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio in his latest piece, titled “Bitcoin MVRV: Will the Long-Term Downtrend Break This Time?”

The MVRV ratio provides insights by comparing Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, effectively gauging holder profitability and revealing market sentiment trends and potential reversals.

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MVRV Ratio Approaches Significant Resistance

Kesmeci emphasized the relevance of the 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA365) as a pivotal point for the MVRV metric. Historically, when Bitcoin’s MVRV moves above and maintains weekly closures over the SMA365, it generally indicates a continuation of upward momentum.

He illustrated this with a case from April 2025, where the MVRV ratio surpassed the SMA365, coinciding with a substantial price surge from around $94,000 to $111,000, ultimately establishing a new peak.

Presently, the MVRV sits at 2.36, significantly above the SMA365 value of 2.14. Yet, Kesmeci warns of a crucial resistance level at 2.93, where previous rallies have faced challenges.

The forthcoming encounter at this resistance may determine whether Bitcoin can maintain its upward path or will need to navigate a stabilization or correction phase. Kesmeci advised caution, encouraging traders to closely watch the MVRV movements, as nearing this threshold often causes market players to reevaluate their risk positions.

Retail Investors Remain Cautiously Absent

Another element influencing Bitcoin’s market dynamics is the evident lack of participation from retail investors. Kesmeci noted that, despite Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs in the second quarter of 2025, engagement from retail investors, indicated by transaction volumes below $10,000, remains relatively low.

While the overall price trend for Bitcoin remains strong, retail trading volumes have shown little growth, revealing that the current rally is largely propelled by institutional or larger-scale investments.

Historically, retail investor activity has been a crucial component in driving prolonged bull markets, enhancing price surges that initially start with institutional contributions.

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Kesmeci points out that significant advancements in past rallies, such as those in 2020-2021, were driven by increased retail involvement. Therefore, a key factor to observe moving forward will be the activity among retail investors.

An increase in retail investment could act as a catalyst for further appreciation in Bitcoin, fortifying recent gains and paving the way for a wider market rally.

Featured image created with an AI tool, Chart from a market analysis platform.