BTC and ETH Surge as Court Overturns Trump's Tariffs

By Omkar Godbole (Times in ET unless stated otherwise)

Bitcoin

experienced a rise, while stock index futures soared early Thursday following a U.S. court ruling that nullified President Trump’s extensive tariffs strategy. The mood improved further due to strong earnings reported by AI powerhouse Nvidia.

Analyzing on-chain data, it appears that substantial wallets, those with over 10,000 BTC, are transitioning from buying to selling as the major cryptocurrency remains near its all-time high. Additionally, a rise in exchange deposits suggests increasing selling activity. Concurrently, options market indicators hint at potential volatility leading into Friday’s monthly settlement.

Ether

, the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, surged to $2,780, marking its peak since February 24, and aligning with bullish trends in the derivatives market. This uptick is attributed to SharpLink’s announcement of a $425 million Treasury initiative. Notably, U.S.-listed spot Ether ETFs recorded a net inflow of $84.89 million on Wednesday, making it their eighth consecutive day of inflows.

The Canadian investment firm Sol Strategies announced its intention to file a preliminary prospectus with local securities regulators aiming to collect up to $1 billion to enhance its investment in the Solana ecosystem. Nevertheless, SOL remained relatively stable, hovering around $170.

Across the market landscape, TON, PEPE, and FLOKI showcased leading performances, while FARTCOIN, PI, and JUP struggled with the most significant losses. Open interest in TON perpetual futures soared by 33%, reaching a total of $190 million, the highest since February 18.

A stablecoin issuer, Circle, has halted wallets linked to the Libra token, which contained millions of dollars worth of USDC. Similarly, Metaplanet has issued $21 million in bonds aimed at financing additional Bitcoin acquisitions.

In traditional financial markets, some investment banks indicated that Trump retains additional mechanisms to navigate the implications of the court’s tariff ruling. Yields on longer-dated Treasury notes rose slightly, signaling strengthening in the dollar. Stay vigilant!

What to Observe

Crypto
Macro
- May 29, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) is set to publish April’s unemployment rate data.
  - Unemployment Rate Est. 6.9% vs. Prev. 7%
- May 29, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will reveal Q1 GDP data.
  - GDP Growth Rate QoQ (2nd estimate) Est. -0.3% vs. Prev. 2.4%
  - GDP Price Index QoQ (2nd estimate) Est. 3.7% vs. Prev. 2.3%
  - GDP Sales QoQ (2nd estimate) Est. -2.5% vs. Prev. 3.3%
- May 29, 2 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will deliver a speech at the 5th Annual Federal Reserve Board Macro-Finance Workshop (virtual).
- May 30, 8 a.m.: IBGE will release Q1 GDP data.
  - GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 1.4% vs. Prev. 0.2%
  - GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 3.2% vs. Prev. 3.6%
- May 30, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography will disclose April’s unemployment rate data.
  - Unemployment Rate Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.2%
- May 30, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada will release Q1 GDP data.
  - GDP Growth Rate Annualized Est. 1.7% vs. Prev. 2.6%
  - GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. 0.6%
- May 30, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will unveil April consumer income and spending data.
  - Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0%
  - Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.6%
  - PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0%
  - PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.2% vs. Prev. 2.3%
  - Personal Income MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.5%
  - Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.7%
- May 30, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan will publish final May U.S. consumer sentiment data.
  - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 51 vs. Prev. 52.2
Earnings (Estimates based on gathered data)

Token Events

Governance votes & calls
Unlocks
- May 31: Optimism (OP) plans to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply, valued at $24.43 million.
- June 1: Sui (SUI) intends to unlock 1.32% of its circulating supply, valued at $160.58 million.
- June 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock 5.34% of its circulating supply, amounting to $11.18 million.
- June 12: Ethena (ENA) is set to unlock 0.7% of its circulating supply, valued at $15.83 million.
- June 12: Aptos (APT) plans to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply, valued at $60.96 million.
Token Launches
- June 1: Staking rewards for ERC-20 OM on MANTRA Finance will conclude.
- June 16: The advised deadline for unstaking stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon will expire.
- June 26: Coinbase will remove Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN), and Synapse (SYN) from its listings.

Conferences

Token Discussion

By Oliver Knight

Markets for the Ethereum-based Cork Protocol remain halted following a $12 million exploit of its smart contract on Wednesday.
The attacker tampered with the contract’s exchange rate functionality by generating counterfeit tokens, leading to a theft of 3,761.8 wrapped staked ether (wstETH).
This exploit marks yet another incident affecting the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, coming just days after the Sui-based Cetus Protocol faced a $223 million attack.
TRM Labs approximates that $2.2 billion was misappropriated through crypto hacks and exploits in 2024.
Ether continues to demonstrate resilience amidst the exploit, experiencing a 3.8% increase within the last 24 hours, while Bitcoin saw a marginal decrease of 0.17%.

Derivatives Positioning

TRX, XMR, ETH, LTC, and BNB led the charge in growth within perpetual futures open interest for major cryptocurrencies.
Funding rates for primary cryptocurrencies, excluding TON, reflect a bullish outlook, though without notable extremes.
On the CME, ETH’s annualized one-month futures basis reached over 10%, while BTC trailed at 8.7%.
Indications of caution were seen on Deribit, with front-end BTC skew shifting toward puts and ETH’s call skew softening. Demand for short-dated BTC puts was observed in block flows on Paradigm.

Market Movements

BTC has risen 1.15% since Wednesday at 4 p.m., currently priced at $108,594.41 (24hrs: -0.29%)
ETH shows a 3.9% increase, standing at $2,738.04 (24hrs: +3.63%)
CoinDesk 20 has risen 2.21% to 3,278.84 (24hrs: +0.66%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate remains stable at 3.1%
BTC’s funding rate is at 0.0057% (annualized 6.3006%) on Binance

DXY has increased by 0.12% to 99.99
Gold is up 0.32% to $3,304.20/oz
Silver has risen by 1.24% to $33.41/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +1.88% at 38,432.98
Hang Seng ended +1.35% at 23,573.38
FTSE remained stable at 8,724.05
Euro Stoxx 50 maintained its position at 5,378.39
DJIA ended Wednesday at -0.58% at 42,098.70
S&P 500 concluded at -0.56% at 5,888.55
Nasdaq closed at -0.51% at 19,100.94
S&P/TSX Composite Index remained unchanged at 26,283.50
S&P 40 Latin America concluded at -0.76 at 2,599.53
The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate has increased by 6 basis points to 4.54%
E-mini S&P 500 futures rose by 1.53% to 5,993.25
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures increased by 2.03% to 21,814.25
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures climbed by 0.96% to 42,576.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 63.71 (-0.06%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02517 (1.12%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 910 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $57.0
Total Fees: 8.03 BTC / $868,310
CME Futures Open Interest: 152,995 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 32.8 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 9.30%

Technical Analysis

VIRTUAL token’s price chart. (TradingView)

The VIRTUAL token has broken past the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-April decline.
This breakout above well-known resistance levels could attract more buyers, potentially triggering a significant rally.

Crypto Equities

MSTR closed Wednesday at $364.25 (-2.14%) and is +2.43% at $373.09 during pre-market trading.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $254.29 (-4.55%), currently +3.01% at $261.95
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$28 (-6.57%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.86 (-9.61%), currently +4.04% at $15.46
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.38 (-8.32%), currently +2.86% at $8.62
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.78 (-4.43%), currently +2.97% at $11.10
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.11 (-7.61%), currently +3.62% at $9.44
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $17.27 (-5.32%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $41.32 (-4.77%), currently +2.95% at $42.54
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $25.94 (-25.35%), currently +11.6% at $28.95

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flow: $432.7 million
Cumulative net flows: $45.31 billion
Total BTC held: ~1.21 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: $84.9 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.9 billion
Total ETH held: ~3.57 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

MOVE index. (TradingView)

The MOVE index, which gauges volatility within U.S. Treasury notes, has hit its lowest point since March.
A further decrease could continue to ease financial conditions, potentially facilitating a Bitcoin bullish trend.