Hedge Fund Executive Predicts Bitcoin Will Surge Over 50% in 6 Months

Currently, Bitcoin is priced above $108,000, stabilizing after reaching a new record high earlier in the week. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, predicts that prices might increase by at least 50% by November. In a market update titled “Saddle Up,” he elaborates that an extraordinary combination of macroeconomic, technical, and on-chain factors represents an exceptionally bullish situation for Bitcoin at peak prices.

Potential for a 50% Increase

Edwards hinted at this trajectory back in late April when Bitcoin was around $93,000. He pointed out the bullish conditions and anticipated that new all-time highs were imminent. Fast forward one month, and the market has surged by 16%, supporting his view and paving the way for further increases.

At the core of his argument is what he refers to as the “Hard Asset Era.” A significant rise in the Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio above its 200-week moving average indicates that investors are leaning towards limited-value assets over stocks.

Historically, such conditions tend to persist, he notes, with gold consistently outperforming stocks by a margin of 150% to 650% in previous cycles. “If you believe gold has already soared, think again,” Edwards remarked. Based on this analogy, Bitcoin, which generally follows gold by several months, could be set for even more robust gains.

Technical and Fundamental Analysis of Bitcoin

Examining market structures, Bitcoin’s dip to $75,000 in April followed by a rapid rise past $90,000 is characterized as a classic “fake-out”—a breakdown that fails and often precedes strong upward movements. According to Edwards, reclaiming the weekly close above $90,000 initiated a new trend, with $104,000 serving as the pivotal support level. “As long as the price stays above $104K, we have the most optimistic technical conditions imaginable,” he added, simplifying near-term risk management to a single figure.

Factors Impacting Future Projections

Capriole’s Bitcoin Macro Index, powered by machine learning and factoring in over 100 on-chain, macroeconomic, and equity-market indicators, remains in a “bullish growth” phase. Evident demand (the difference between production and inactive supply) has turned positive, US liquidity continues to remain favorable, and Capriole’s innovative “Volume Summer” indicator shows increasing trading activity. When combined with the historical delay of three to five months seen between gold breakouts and Bitcoin increases, they assert that a rise of over 50% in the next half-year is a conservative estimate.

Policy Uncertainties

The most significant risks to these expectations stem from policy decisions. Edwards points out that the US has a 30- to 60-day window to reach tariff agreements with China and the European Union; a breakdown in negotiations could affect market risk tolerance. He also indicates that the rise of “Bitcoin-treasury arbitrage,” where corporations take on low-cost debt to acquire Bitcoin, could worsen market conditions during significant downturns, although current leverage levels are manageable.

At this stage, the combination of a bull market for hard assets, confirmed technical strength, and improved fundamentals leads Capriole to remain very positive about the medium- to long-term outlook for both gold and Bitcoin. As long as the price stays above the crucial $104,000 level, Edwards advises that investors should — in his own words — “saddle up.”

As of now, the price of Bitcoin is at $108,005.