Bitcoin’s Journey to $300K May Encounter Geopolitical Challenges, with Emotional Trading Introducing Additional Uncertainty

On May 22nd, Bitcoin soared to an unprecedented level of $112,000, igniting an influx of optimism among investors.

This upward movement, sparked by a sudden bullish turn following the White House’s choice to postpone 50% tariffs on EU products, has faced obstacles due to geopolitical instability and evident signs of market exuberance.

Public Sentiment Surrounding Bitcoin

Data from Santiment indicates a notable rise in public optimism precisely as Bitcoin reached its peak, prompting a swift market correction. This serves as a reminder that extreme optimism can often foreshadow market downturns. Enthusiastic discussions across platforms like X, Reddit, and Telegram peaked on May 22, only to be quickly reversed by the market’s unease following a tariff warning from President Trump.

Although a federal court decision on May 28 ruled the “Liberation Day” tariffs unconstitutional, providing temporary respite, Santiment cautioned that ongoing conversations about tariffs are now a major source of market volatility.

References to “tariff” and “trade war” surged on social media during the last days of May, reflecting trends seen during the earlier April market correction. Despite this, the mood remains positive. The leading Bitcoin options call has now risen to a forecast of $300K. This sentiment indicates increasing long-term expectations, even amidst short-term uncertainties.

According to Santiment’s analysis, crowd sentiment often serves as a counter-indicator, with notable fear on May 25 aligning with Bitcoin’s recovery to $106K. Meanwhile, the blockchain fundamentals exhibit strength, with over 147,000 BTC leaving exchanges in 2025, decreasing immediate sell pressures and suggesting sustained confidence from holders.

The Mean Dollar Invested Age (MDIA) has been consistently declining since mid-April, signifying that older coins are being reactivated—typically a bullish indicator associated with ongoing price growth. Santiment pointed out that these dynamics imply the rally is driven by more than just speculative excitement.

Future Trajectory for BTC

Bitcoin whales continue to significantly influence market peaks. On the day Bitcoin reached its all-time high, there were 18,782 transactions exceeding $100,000, marking the highest volume since Trump’s inauguration in January and indicating substantial profit-taking by institutional investors.

One particularly large whale reportedly maintained a 40x leveraged position valued at $1.2 billion. Consequently, the report warns that if prices fall below $104,810, it could lead to a cascade of unwinding long positions.

As Bitcoin embarks on a new phase of price discovery, it appears that emotional reactions and external shocks are still driving short-term fluctuation, even as indicators like exchange flows and coin aging metrics signal stronger bullish foundations. While the path to $300K may prove challenging, investor optimism, much like Bitcoin’s price, remains at an all-time high.