Bloomberg Analyst Increases Probability of Spot LTC and SOL ETF Approvals to 90%

The excitement surrounding potential altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues to grow, particularly in relation to the decisions of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart has recently increased the likelihood of these approvals occurring.

In his latest analysis, Seyffart asserts that the probability of spot ETFs for Solana (SOL) and Litecoin (LTC) being approved is currently at 90%.

Likelihood of Approval

This updated assessment was shared in a post on June 10. Following closely is XRP, with an 85% chance of approval, while Dogecoin (DOGE) has an 80% probability. Additional cryptocurrencies like Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), Hedera (HBAR), and Avalanche (AVAX) are each estimated at a 75% likelihood.

The SEC is actively evaluating proposals for spot Solana ETFs. Reports indicate that the agency has requested that issuers provide updated S1 registration forms in the coming week and intends to review and respond to these filings within 30 days.

It has also been noted that the SEC has asked for clarifications on how staking and in-kind redemptions would be managed. These requests indicate a growing openness from the SEC to include staking within the framework of a Solana ETF. One insider suggested that these modifications could expedite the approval timeline, potentially leading to a decision in the next three to five weeks.

A number of significant firms are looking to introduce a Solana ETF, including Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Canary Capital, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton.

Seyffart pointed out that the financial regulator might start reviewing their 19b4 filings earlier than anticipated, particularly those that involve staking. He noted that issuers have likely been collaborating with the SEC and its dedicated crypto task force to finalize the specifics.

Delays in the Approval Process

The SEC officially recognized Grayscale’s Solana ETF proposal in February. Yet, it postponed a decision in May due to outstanding issues. Recently, the agency also delayed its rulings on proposals from Bitwise and 21Shares to allow more time for thorough examination of technical, legal, and investor protection components.

Reflecting on these developments, Seyffart mentioned that such delays are typical in the approval process. He suggested that if the SEC were to approve any altcoin ETFs, it would likely not occur before late June or early July. A more practical expectation for approvals might fall in the fourth quarter of 2025.

While the U.S. market awaits further developments, other nations have progressed ahead. In August 2024, Brazil launched its first spot Solana ETF through QR Asset, with an additional product from Hashdex coming soon after.