XRP at Critical Technical Crossroads, Cautions Crypto Analyst

XRP is approaching a critical juncture with Fibonacci support levels that may determine the trajectory of its potential rally through late 2024, as illustrated in a recent one-hour chart by the independent analyst CasiTrades. At the time of this report, the token was trading at $2.0995 on Binance, showing a slight decrease of 0.16%, but remaining just above the 38.2% retracement level from its rally in late April.

XRP Gaining Traction

Addressing the implications of the current downward trend, CasiTrades noted, “Momentum is gaining, and XRP is approaching one of the most vital support levels observed in recent weeks.” This analysis utilizes Fibonacci retracement levels based on a swing high of $2.3622 recorded on April 28 and a low of $1.6169 from April 7. The 38.2% retracement is identified at $2.0775, while the midpoint cutback is at $1.9896, with the golden ratio’s 61.8% level situated at $1.9016.

CasiTrades underscores the significance of the 38.2–50% range from $2.078 to $2.00 as a “crucial support zone,” remarking: “This region has historically functioned as a pivot, and this is where we could witness a market reversal should bullish strength return.”

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Price developments following the peak of $2.36 are characterized as a classic A-B-C corrective model. The first wave (A) took XRP beneath the 23.6% retracement at $2.1863; wave (B) tried to retest upper resistance but fell short of the high; and the current wave (C) is indicated by a magenta arrow directed toward the $2.00–$1.90 range. “We might see one final downside move or unexpected drop targeting the significant $1.90 level before momentum shifts,” the analyst warned, adding that such fluctuations often occur rapidly, meaning that by the time they become apparent, the opportunity could be lost.”

Within the charts, momentum indicators show signs of waning. The one-hour RSI has formed a sequence of higher lows since late April through early May, despite a slight drop in prices, creating a clear bullish divergence highlighted by an upward trend line. The oscillator is hovering just below the 40 mark, indicating that selling pressures are diminishing as prices move closer to support levels. “In lower timeframes, the RSI indicates signs of selling fatigue, as price movements begin to consolidate, which often signals an approaching larger price shift,” CasiTrades noted.

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Major Resistance Levels

Fibonacci levels from a wider swing create a structured arrangement of resistance above the current market. A critical area around $2.2559 represents the 38.2% retracement from a previous macro high and is considered “.382 major support” that has now transformed into resistance until overcome. Further, the 11.8% line is located at $2.2743, with the past peak at $2.36 forming the upper limit of the short-term range. “From these support levels, we aim for XRP to gain the momentum needed to exceed $2.25, $2.68, and higher,” the analyst informed his audience, adding, “Now is the time to stay vigilant!”

In discussions, traders speculated whether Bitcoin and the Federal Reserve’s announcement the following Wednesday might precipitate another downturn. “I think that too… ideally, any support tests should be met with robust strength and a significant rebound,” CasiTrades replied. When asked where he would start a long position, he suggested a tiered approach: “Ideally, you’d want to ladder in at $2.08, $2.00, and $1.90—sub-waves indicate $2.00 as the most probable pivot support.”

At the time of this report, XRP was priced at $2.14.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com