Bitcoin Market Cycle Indicator Suggests Upcoming Bullish Breakout, According to Analyst
Reasons for Confidence
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Recently, Bitcoin (BTC) has started to exhibit signs of a potential trend reversal after a period of decline. Notably, it surpassed the $100,000 mark yesterday for the first time since early February.
Is Bitcoin About to Reverse Its Trend?
Currently, Bitcoin is trading just above $100,000, approximately 5.2% lower than its all-time high of $108,786, which occurred on January 20 of this year. The leading cryptocurrency has experienced a notable recovery of over 20% from its recent low of $74,508 recorded on April 6.
Additional Insights
In his assessment, an analyst indicated that a market cycle indicator is beginning to show early signals of a bullish trend reversal. The analyst stated:
As Bitcoin climbs back above $100K, the indicator has started to display bullish signals again – after several weeks of inactivity. While this signal is weak (coefficient: 0.029), its emergence suggests a positive shift.
To elaborate, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator is an analytical tool that monitors long-term and short-term market sentiment by comparing price movements with investor trends. It employs two main components: the 30-day and 365-day moving averages (MA) to detect transitions between market cycles.
Crucially, the upward trend of the 30-day MA suggests that a crossover above the 365-day MA could lead to significant price increases for Bitcoin based on historical patterns.
Recent shifts in the macroeconomic landscape may also bolster the bullish outlook for Bitcoin. An expert recently pointed to the correlation between the global M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
The expert presented a chart illustrating the price of Bitcoin alongside the M2 money supply, adjusted for a 12-week lag. This data indicates a notable rise in global liquidity since early 2025, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price may continue to rise in the forthcoming months.
Cautionary Signals Persist for BTC
Despite recent gains, there are still cautionary indicators. Analysts emphasize that the current upswing has seen substantial profit-taking, raising concerns about the formation of a local peak.
Additional Insights
Moreover, recent evaluations reveal that Bitcoin’s Demand Momentum is still in negative territory. This pattern is often observed during the later phases of market cycles or periods of macroeconomic consolidation.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) is starting to indicate renewed bullish momentum. Currently, BTC is priced at $103,444, reflecting a 4% increase over the last 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash; charts from various sources.
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