Bitcoin Targets All-Time High as U.S. Secures Trade Agreement with China and Inflation Figures Approach

Bitcoin is approaching potential record highs, with prices hovering around $104,097.79. This surge could spur significant increases across the broader altcoin market, especially as easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China may lead to optimistic market reactions amid a projected slowdown in April’s consumer price index (CPI) data.

Following two intensive days of negotiations in Geneva, a trade agreement between the United States and China was finalized, as announced by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. A joint statement regarding the Geneva discussions is expected to be released shortly.

This deal follows weeks of escalating trade tensions, with both nations imposing tariffs over 100%, which raised concerns about global inflation. Consequently, the favorable consumer price inflation data from March was largely overlooked by investors, who considered it outdated in light of the ongoing trade conflict.

With this new trade agreement, skeptics have lost their arguments against a bullish market.

Should the CPI continue to soften, it could bolster expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin to climb to new heights above $110,000. Conversely, if the CPI shows unexpected increases, it may be viewed as outdated, reflecting the past tariffs rather than recent improvements in trade relations.

The CPI report slated for Tuesday is anticipated to reveal a slight ease in the annual cost of living to 2.3% in April, down from March’s 2.4%, according to RBC. The core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, is projected to remain steady at 2.8% year-over-year, supported by ongoing declines in rental inflation.

As per research from 10x, there’s a consensus that the headline CPI likely remained unchanged at 2.4% for April.

“If this prediction holds true, the market may interpret the inflation report positively. Assuming no negative headlines regarding tariffs emerge, this week’s data could trigger a bullish sentiment,” said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.

“There’s a potential for the CPI report to be favorable and might lead to all-time highs,” Thielen further remarked.

Currently, Bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency, is trading around $104,000, just 5.1% off its previous high of approximately $109,350.

Since early April, Bitcoin has experienced a near V-shaped recovery from $75,000, with a substantial 10% increase last week attributed to strong inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF has seen consistent net inflows for 20 consecutive trading days, accumulating more than $5 billion, according to SoSoValue. Last week, the Federal Reserve opted to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 4.25% to 4.5% range while emphasizing a data-driven approach to possible rate cuts. Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a positive view on underlying inflation, suggesting the inflationary effects of tariffs could be temporary.

Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, surged by 39% last week to $2,500, marking its best performance since December 2020. Other significant altcoins, such as XRP, DOGE, ADA, and SOL, also experienced substantial gains of 9.7%, 56%, 19%, and 20%, respectively.

HTX Research reports no indications of speculative mania, suggesting that the rally could persist.

“Implied volatility in Bitcoin options remains stable in the 50%–55% range, significantly lower than the 80%+ extremes usually encountered during previous bull markets. The open interest for CME Bitcoin futures now sits at $14.8 billion, well below the $20 billion peak from the Trump election period, indicating manageable leverage levels,” HTX Research stated.

“As long as yields do not surpass 4.8% and ETF inflows remain consistent, Bitcoin is expected to stabilize within the $105,000–$115,000 range while waiting for the next trigger for a breakout.”