Is a $1 Price Target Realistic for Dogecoin? Analyst Identifies Promising Indicators

Dogecoin’s recent underwhelming spring surge has sparked renewed interest among retail investors regarding whether this iconic meme cryptocurrency can surpass the $1 threshold before the ongoing market rally loses momentum. In a recent 13-minute market analysis shared on Sunday, independent analyst Kevin, also recognized as Kev Capital TA, expressed a confident “yes,” citing a blend of long-term Fibonacci levels, momentum indicators, and a favorable macroeconomic environment for high-risk crypto assets.

Is $1 Attainable for Dogecoin?

“Can Dogecoin reach $1 in this cycle? Absolutely, it can,” Kevin asserted at the beginning of his update. He explained that Dogecoin is currently experiencing its third significant cycle and has previously reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension on its monthly chart. This extension is presently estimated at around $3.80, which is “far exceeding a dollar,” and he clarified that this figure is not a direct price prediction but rather a way to indicate potential growth.

Additional Insights

Kevin’s optimism is grounded in momentum indicators that suggest Dogecoin is just beginning to gain traction. On the monthly relative strength index, he identified a rising trend that has persisted since the lows following the Luna crash in June 2022. “We approached approximately 50 cents with the monthly RSI at 75,” he noted, adding that past cycles have seen this indicator rise to at least 89.4. “Look at the room we still have to grow.” A new bullish crossover in the monthly stochastic oscillator would solidify his prediction.

Kevin also connected the potential for Dogecoin to a macroeconomic environment he sees as increasingly supportive: anticipations for interest rate reductions in the US, a slowdown in quantitative tightening, and an increase in global liquidity. He suggested that these factors, combined with a decrease in Bitcoin dominance, which his team predicted at 65.45% on April 28, create ideal conditions for what he calls an “alt-season.” “Altcoins react to Bitcoin… easier monetary policies encourage that liquidity to flow into the market,” he elaborated.

Key technical analysis levels are still in focus. Kevin referred to a “well-defined inverse head-and-shoulders” formation, which he initiated at a mean price of $0.15—currently showing an increase of 65–70%—with successive goals set at $0.48 and the prior all-time high near $0.74. Achieving the $1 milestone would depend on a continuing improvement in liquidity and a “sustained” decline in Bitcoin dominance. “If we keep moving along this path of loosening monetary policy… we could realistically see Dogecoin reach a dollar by year-end,” he finalized.

Additional Insights

Critics might point to Dogecoin’s dramatic rise in 2021—driven by social media buzz and Elon Musk’s “Saturday Night Live” stint—as an isolated occurrence; Kevin counters that the same Pi-cycle moving average that accurately predicted past peaks is “far from crossing,” indicating more room for growth before any market exuberance returns. The shorter-term yellow average, he mentioned, “won’t start trending up until Dogecoin reaches 40 to 41 cents,” suggesting a potential 145% rise needed to meet the $1 target even in a rising market.

While Kevin recognized that “our goal is profit, not attachment,” he tempered expectations regarding the aggressive targets promoted on social media. “We’re not aiming to turn this into a Dogecoin to $35 scenario… This is a data-driven analysis,” he communicated to his audience, encouraging them to view $1 as an ambitious yet realistic aim rather than a certainty.

At the time of this update, with Dogecoin priced around $0.25, the cryptocurrency would have to experience a fourfold increase to reach the psychologically significant dollar threshold.

Featured visuals created with DALL.E, charts sourced from TradingView.com.