Bitcoin Macro Trend Indicator Signals When to Anticipate Price Peaks

The price dynamics of Bitcoin over the last day exhibited significant volatility, rising briefly above the $106,000 threshold before retreating to hover around $103,000.

This recent volatility indicates that Bitcoin’s price journey has not yet reached its peak. Amidst these fluctuations, a new macroeconomic model known as the Decode Macro Trend Oscillator (MTO) has emerged, providing insights into potential price peaks for Bitcoin in this cycle.

Decode’s Macro Trend Oscillator Model and Its Connection to Bitcoin Peaks

The Decode Macro Trend Oscillator is a sophisticated instrument developed by a cryptocurrency analyst named Decode on the social media platform X. This oscillator integrates around 40 macroeconomic factors, including interest rates, global liquidity, industrial output, and market volatility, distilled into 17 carefully curated leading indicators.

These indicators are then normalized and represented as a histogram, revealing a cyclical trend that has historically matched crucial peaks in Bitcoin prices. A detailed examination of the Bitcoin Liquid Index chart on a 1M candlestick timeframe shows that light green histogram bars have consistently aligned with Bitcoin’s major cycle heights in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

Vertical red lines mark these peaks, and the shifts from deep red to green on the oscillator offer visual signals for the conclusion of bearish trends and the start of upward price movements. As of May 2025, the histogram is still deeply in the red, but there are signs of an upward shift, with the latest reading at -11.47, indicating favorable macroeconomic conditions may be on the horizon for a significant Bitcoin rally.

Fine-tuning Cycle Top Predictions with BTC Mode Configuration

Decode’s analysis expands its focus beyond just Bitcoin-focused metrics. A related chart analyzing the S&P 500 Index over a 2M timeframe presents a long-term perspective on the current global economic landscape compared to the late 1980s and early 1990s. The macro trend oscillator has proven to be an accurate indicator for both downturns and expansions during these periods.

Negative pressures from inflation and decreasing consumer confidence pushed the oscillator firmly into the red for extended periods in both scenarios. However, once the histogram transitioned to green, both the economy and prices entered sustained expansion phases.

The third chart illustrates Bitcoin’s weekly trend, incorporating an overlay of M2 money supply growth, another key monetary metric. This perspective demonstrates how the Macro Trend Oscillator, when set to a configuration referred to as “Bitcoin Mode,” enhances sensitivity to factors directly affecting cryptocurrency markets. In this mode, only the most relevant metrics from the full set of 17 are utilized to pinpoint Bitcoin cycle peaks.

Currently, Bitcoin remains within the negative red histogram zone, despite recent rallies. The initial deep green histogram has yet to appear, along with the first light green bar that marks the cycle apex. According to this analysis, the oscillator suggests that Bitcoin has ample potential for upward movement this cycle, making a price peak in 2025 seem unlikely.

As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $103,300.