Quant Reveals Bitcoin at $103,000 Appears Stable According to This Indicator

A quantitative analyst has noted that the Mayer Multiple may indicate that Bitcoin is not yet overheated at the price of $103,000 when compared to historical patterns.

Mayer Multiple Z-Score for Bitcoin Remains Below Average

In a recent discussion on X, quant expert Frank examined the current state of Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple. This term refers to an indicator that measures the ratio of Bitcoin’s spot price to its 200-day moving average (MA), essentially showing the distance of the asset’s value from its 200-day average.

The 200-day MA is widely recognized as a critical threshold that distinguishes macro bullish from bearish conditions in the cryptocurrency market, making it important to assess the coin’s position relative to this line.

In this conversation, the focal point is not the Mayer Multiple itself, but its Z-Score. This Z-Score serves as an oscillating gauge that monitors how much the indicator deviates from its average value.

Below is the chart illustrating this metric as presented by the analyst:

The upper graph indicates that Bitcoin’s price dipped below the 200-day MA during a prior market downturn, but has since recovered and risen back above this line. However, it appears that the asset hasn’t gained significant ground above this level based on historical data.

Moreover, the Mayer Multiple Z-Score, depicted in the lower graph, indicates a value currently below zero. This zero level represents the historical average of the Mayer Multiple, so a negative value signals that the indicator is currently below its average historical level.

Specifically, 53% of recorded days have shown the ratio to be higher than its current level. Therefore, the analyst concludes that Bitcoin remains relatively stable, even at the current price of $103,000.

From the chart, it is clear that while the Z-Score remains in negative territory, it has improved significantly from the lows experienced earlier this year. If Bitcoin continues its upward momentum, it may soon challenge the zero level.

In this current cycle, the Mayer Multiple has occasionally surpassed its mean, with the most significant deviation occurring during the rally in Q1 2024, when the Z-Score rose above the standard deviation of 1.

However, the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple has not shown the same level of deviation as it did during the bull run of early 2021. It remains uncertain whether this metric will escalate to comparable levels in this current cycle.

Bitcoin Price Update

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $102,700, reflecting a 1.5% decline over the past week.