Is a $3.80 Price Tag Possible for Dogecoin? Analyst Believes It Can Happen Under Certain Conditions.

According to Kevin, a technical analyst known as @Kev_Capital_TA on X and YouTube, the current market structure for Dogecoin is “significantly improved compared to previous bull markets.” In a recent video, he outlined Dogecoin’s three past cycles, asserting that the current pattern of breakout and retest sets a long-term Fibonacci extension between $3.80 and $3.90 as a realistic target—if Bitcoin continues to rise steadily.

Kevin noted, “In two consecutive cycles, Dogecoin reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.” He emphasized that in this third cycle, the evidence indicates a similar occurrence has historically taken place. However, he cautioned that the limited data set means it could also not occur this time around.

Potential for $3.80 Per Dogecoin This Cycle

Examining a log-scale weekly chart, Kevin depicted Dogecoin’s first super-cycle which included consolidation, breakout, mid-cycle pullback, and a blow-off top, all culminating at the 1.618 extension. The second cycle mirrored this behavior, albeit with “Elon Musk’s Saturday Night Live hype” propelling prices beyond the Fibonacci target into euphoric levels.

He posits that the current cycle looks more robust: with consecutive breakouts and back-tests of the range from the bear market, a rising channel of higher highs and higher lows has formed, anchored around the 200-week EMA/SMA cluster. “This structure appears very promising… if we break out, then back-test the 200s, creating a higher low—that’s textbook behavior,” he explained.

On the monthly chart, the Relative Strength Index shows “consistent strength with higher lows,” remaining well below the 80-90 threshold observed at previous cycle peaks. He also pointed out a V-shaped curl in the monthly Stochastic RSI, indicating momentum that “should help facilitate a sustainable upward movement” once it crosses the 20 line.

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The two-week Market Cipher analysis reveals three years of increasingly strong momentum waves and capital inflows. “This is significant,” he stated while highlighting each expansion. “Momentum is consolidating and approaching a point where it could release soon.”

A new two-week Stochastic RSI cross has historically preceded “massive upward moves,” hinting that the post-halving period might trigger Dogecoin’s next significant surge.

For traders focused on shorter timelines, Kevin pointed out a macro golden pocket ranging from $0.26 to $0.285, reinforced by the daily 200-SMA at $0.27. This range forms the upper boundary of a developing bull flag with a projected move targeting $0.32 to $0.33. The pattern emerged from an inverse head-and-shoulders accumulation at $0.15, a level he heavily invested in, and is now approximately 60% up.

“Consider resistance as resistance until it’s overcome,” he cautioned, noting that Bitcoin dominance near 64% continues to drain liquidity from altcoins. Nonetheless, he sees “strong indicators” that the dominance might have reached a local peak at 65.45%, allowing a rotation into major altcoins like Ethereum and subsequently Dogecoin.

Essential Conditions for Progress

If Bitcoin maintains stability and macroeconomic indicators—like reducing inflation, stable employment figures, and potential Federal Reserve easing—remain favorable, Kevin’s next “primary price target” is the 2021 all-time high just below $1.00. A decisive breakout there would direct attention to the cycle’s 1.618 extension near $3.80.

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“I would be surprised if we don’t reach that mark at this stage,” he asserted, while emphasizing the importance of disciplined profit-taking: “There’s nothing worse than letting a gain run all the way up without taking some profits.”

Kevin dismissed the more extreme predictions of six and seven dollars circulating online but insisted that a price above $3 for Dogecoin is “entirely within reach” if Bitcoin approaches $200,000, quantitative tightening concludes, and a widespread altcoin season arises.

He noted that Dogecoin continues to be “one of the most cherished cryptocurrencies globally.” “When retail investors return, they typically gravitate towards Dogecoin,” he remarked. This psychological dynamic, coupled with a structurally bullish chart and improving momentum indicators, reinforces his belief that the memecoin could once again lead a larger altcoin rally.

The market’s ability to provide the necessary macroeconomic support is the unpredictable factor. However, Kevin’s stance is clear: Dogecoin’s technical setup currently shows a plausible path to $1, with the ambitious $3.80 goal “within reach—if Bitcoin remains resilient and macro conditions stay favorable.”

As of the latest update, DOGE was priced at $0.243.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com