Leading Researcher Claims Bitcoin Could Reach $200,000 by Year’s End

Bitcoin’s journey towards a $200,000 valuation by December has found new support. A boutique research firm focused on digital assets, Capriole Investments, highlighted recent modeling by on-chain analyst “ElonMoney,” suggesting that such a valuation is not only achievable but backed by statistical analysis. Capriole stated on a social platform that “$200K is real,” emphasizing that the conversation uses Capriole Charts for comprehensive Bitcoin evaluation.

In this study, ElonMoney considers six long-term indicators. The analyst mentions utilizing metrics such as the MVRV Z-Score, Energy Value Oscillator, Bitcoin Heater, and additional historical data. The conclusion is clear: “$200K is real.”

Bitcoin’s $200K Potential

Initiating the analysis is the MVRV Z-Score, which indicates how many standard deviations Bitcoin’s market cap is above its realized cap. The current score hovers slightly above 2, placing it in a “neutral zone,” as described by ElonMoney, who notes it is distant from the overheating red zone. “Today’s reading shows that there’s still room for growth; previous peaks were not reached until the Z-Score surpassed seven,” the analyst points out, suggesting prices could potentially double without breaking historical patterns.

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Energy economics supports a similar conclusion. ElonMoney discusses the Energy Value Oscillator, which correlates a theoretical fair value to the total energy consumption of the network. This fair-value marker is positioned around $130,000, above current spot prices, indicating that the oscillator is nearly neutral.

“Discussion of a terminal peak is premature until the oscillator indicates a 100 percent premium,” the analyst states, recalling the 2021 high when premiums exceeded one hundred percent, even though Bitcoin peaked below $70,000. Under existing hash-rate forecasts, the model suggests fair value could hit $150,000 by October, while a historical premium could see prices reach between $225,000 to $300,000.

Derivative metrics provide further validation. The Bitcoin Heater, an aggregate of perpetual-swap funding, calendar-spread basis, and options skew, stands between 0.6 and 0.7. “The derivatives market is beginning to warm up, but it’s not overly heated yet,” notes the report. “We have not approached the sustained 0.9+ indicators typical of market peaks; the need for leverage is only beginning to manifest.”

The Macro Index Oscillator, derived from over forty on-chain and macroeconomic factors, reports a value of +0.7. “This indicates clear expansion; however, expansion does not equate to ultimate exhaustion,” ElonMoney remarks, recalling that this metric peaked at three in 2021. The researcher emphasizes that growth in users, fee revenue, and realized profit-and-loss metrics all point to an expanding economy rather than a contracting one.

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The depth of liquidity, indicated by the proprietary “Volume Summer” index, appears promising yet restrained. “Money is returning to spot markets, but we have not observed the intense demand that typically marks retail initiatives,” the report explains. The latest reading of +75,000 contrasts with the +150,000 noted two months prior to the peak in April 2021. “Liquidity remains positive, but it is not in a frenzy,” ElonMoney adds.

Lastly, regarding leverage itself, the ratio of total open positions to market cap stands just below 3.5%. ElonMoney describes this as “constructive but not explosive,” remarking, “The market will not peak until speculators lose confidence in falling prices, and we aren’t at that stage yet. Should open interest to market cap exceed five percent, it would signal caution; otherwise, leverage serves as fuel for growth.”

Although Capriole does not release a specific price target, by sharing this analysis, it implicitly acknowledges the potential for significant upside for Bitcoin before the end of the year. The summary from Capriole reads simply, “$200K is real,” alongside a visual representation of key analytical data.

Determining the timing of such moves depends on how quickly these six indicators approach their historical peaks. ElonMoney outlines a conditional forecast: “If the MVRV exceeds seven, if the Energy Value premium surpasses one hundred percent, if the Heater reaches one, and if open interest to market cap hits five percent, then distribution territory will be imminent.” In the absence of this convergence, he believes price growth will continue. “Bitcoin does not face decline from age,” the analysis concludes. “It declines from being overvalued, and we are clearly not there yet.”

As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $109,559, indicating a near 90% increase is necessary to substantiate ElonMoney’s projected scenario by year’s end.

Featured image generated with AI, chart data from a trading platform.