Dogecoin’s Chart Takes a Turn for the Worse—This Price Level Might Spark Fear

Dogecoin has experienced a downturn after a month-long rise that peaked at $0.259 on May 11 before losing momentum. Currently, the memecoin is trading around $0.228, giving it a market capitalization of approximately $34 billion, which is still about 69% lower than its all-time high in 2021.

Statistically speaking, this drop is relatively small: Dogecoin remains about 35% higher than its early May low of $0.164. However, the pattern of lower highs developing since mid-May has heightened traders’ concerns about whether the earlier rally was corrective rather than indicative of continued upward momentum.

Is a Price Drop for Dogecoin on the Horizon?

According to technical analyst More Crypto Online in his recent YouTube update, the rally structure unfolded in three waves, similar to many other cryptocurrencies, lacking the five-wave setup that typically supports ongoing bullish trends. He believes that the market has begun reversing into what appears to be a “micro five-wave move down.”

The analyst noted, “Doge surged in three waves akin to other cryptocurrencies into the Friday swing high,” indicating to viewers that the rise from the trough on April 26 lacked sufficient convincing strength. The core of his reasoning suggests that the climb from $0.164 to the May 11 top of $0.259 failed to establish the five-wave formation associated with sustainable upward moves in Elliott Wave theory.

Instead, he contends that the price movement has initiated a “micro five-wave move down,” suggesting that the April–May increase might have only constituted the B-wave of a broader A-B-C correction. He stated, “Once the price drops below the red dotted line at $0.21, it would confirm the outlook for a more significant pullback within the yellow count,” further emphasizing that nothing in the present chart challenges that perspective.

The “yellow” scenario proposes an extended C-wave that develops in five sub-waves, targeting the 38.2%–78.6% Fibonacci retracement range drawn from the April rally. This translates numerically to a potential price range of $0.199–0.183 in the forthcoming trading sessions.

“Testing $0.199 to $0.183 in the near term appears likely,” said More Crypto Online. “We have already witnessed a five-wave decline from yesterday’s peak, so we must prepare for merely corrective rebounds before potentially experiencing a sharp downturn in wave three.”

This strategy allows for a brief recovery wave—designated as wave 2 of C—to test initial resistance around $0.233 to $0.247. However, the analyst warned that any recovery should be strictly corrective; a definitive hourly close above $0.247 would be necessary to rejuvenate the bullish “orange” count, which permits one last surge of the earlier rally.

Additional Insights

“Any significant break above $0.247 could imply we’re already in an upward extension,” he remarked, but he quickly added that such a scenario “would again be nullified with a breach below the dotted red line.”

Current macroeconomic factors are not favorable for Dogecoin. As Treasury yields reach new quarterly peaks and Bitcoin dominance rises, liquidity has been siphoned away from high-risk altcoins. Even the launch of the Grayscale Dogecoin Trust in January, which had previously attracted institutional investment, has not prevented the sell-off from niche tokens during May’s risk-averse phase.

From a market-structure viewpoint, Dogecoin’s immediate survival hinges on whether bulls can maintain the $0.21 pivot discussed in the analysis. A daily close below that level would permit bears to target $0.19, while only a breach of the $0.247 barrier could “reduce the likelihood of that drop,” according to the analyst.

As of the last update, DOGE is trading at $0.228.