Uncommon Investor Consensus Forms as Bitcoin (BTC) Rebounds from Geopolitical Decline

Bitcoin has started the week strongly, trading above $107K as it recovers from recent market fluctuations related to geopolitical events. Notably, both individual investors and larger stakeholders seem to be maintaining their positions without significant selling.

Currently, inflows of Bitcoin into Binance from both whales and retail investors have hit their lowest point since the beginning of this market phase.

### BTC Investors Unified in Holding Mode

Recent analysis indicates a rare consensus among Bitcoin investors, demonstrating a clear preference for holding over selling. This behavior from both large and small investors underscores strong confidence in Bitcoin’s future performance.

Historically, there have been coordinated inflows from both retail and institutional investors at significant market peaks. However, the current decrease in deposits points to a strategic adjustment, with market participants seemingly preparing for potential price increases instead of liquidating their holdings.

The reduced trading activity might suggest that investors are biding their time for more definitive economic signals before making substantial transactions. Still, the synchronized behavior of both types of holders reflects a constructive sentiment regarding Bitcoin.

Expanding the analysis, data indicates a notable shift in Bitcoin’s 25 Delta Skew, which has turned positive over the past week despite minor price corrections. The one-week skew moved from -2.6% to +10.1%, while the one-month skew changed from -2.2% to +4.9%, indicating strong optimistic expectations for the near term.

### Bitcoin Shakes Off Geopolitical Jitters

In addition to the sense of market stability, it has been observed that Bitcoin has maintained a calm reaction to recent geopolitical developments.

Following initial market concerns triggered by news surrounding Iran and Israel last Friday, Bitcoin quickly rebounded from a low of $102.8K to $107K. This recovery was in line with gains seen in larger cryptocurrencies and U.S. equity futures, largely fueled by institutional activity. Accumulation by firms such as Metaplanet and Strategy, along with continued inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, have been significant contributors to this.

Bitcoin’s resilience above the critical $100K mark, even amidst a 3% downturn, stands in stark contrast to the 8% decline experienced during similar geopolitical tensions witnessed last April.

Further insights reveal that implied volatility remains relatively low, with Bitcoin’s frontend volatility below 40 and the VIX around 20. These levels typically do not align with heightened global risk. Although the movement towards U.S. Treasuries and Asian bonds indicates some caution, the markets have not fully transitioned into a risk-averse stance.

However, some analysts caution that if actions escalate, such as a potential blockade by Iran of the Strait of Hormuz or U.S. military engagement, it could lead to wider market upheaval. Ironically, such developments may end up being fundamentally supportive for Bitcoin’s value.