What Will Propel Dogecoin to New Heights? Analyst Discloses Critical Factors

Technical analyst Kevin, recognized on social media as @Kev_Capital_TA, recently emphasized what he refers to as “a low at the precise level we had anticipated for several months.” In a post that accompanied his chart, he pointed out the intersection of the macro 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement—drawn from the 2021 peak to last year’s low—and a long-standing descending resistance line that has acted as support since the bear market’s lows. The spot price reached $0.138 — the exact point of that 0.382 retracement — before bouncing back to the current $0.18 range.

A Potential Path to $1 for Dogecoin

Kevin contends that the momentum observed on higher time frames is beginning to change. “The weekly RSI has reached the exact level where it has consistently found support since the depths of the bear market, and every time it hits that mark, we see higher price levels,” he noted, stating that the relative strength index is forming successive higher lows even as the price incrementally rises.

Simultaneously, the one-week Stochastic RSI has already signaled a bullish crossover, while a two-week crossover “is on the horizon,” a pattern that in prior cycles has preceded extended rallies for the memecoin.

From a risk-reward standpoint, Kevin asserts that the asymmetry remains attractive. “As I mentioned weeks ago, the risk-reward ratio on DOGE was outstanding, as your downside was limited while the upside potential was significant,” he mentioned, indicating that his Patreon followers made a “substantial investment at 0.15 cents with a stop loss set at break-even.” He believes that the only missing element is supportive macroeconomic data: “Positive economic indicators are essential to maintain momentum and will accelerate the process.”

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The chart outlines a sequence of Fibonacci extension and retracement levels that delineate potential resistance zones should the rebound progress into a trend reversal. The first and nearest is the 50 percent retracement at $0.19039; this aligns with the underside of a broken trend line, making it the next technical barrier to overcome.

Above this level, the 61.8 percent retracement, located around $0.26216, indicates the golden-ratio threshold that often separates corrective bounces from primary upward trends. A smaller cluster at the 65 percent level, evident on Kevin’s chart at $0.28522, serves as an intermediate challenge before the price can tackle the substantial 78.6 percent retracement near $0.41339—an area that correlates with the early-2022 distribution zone.

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Should Dogecoin regain that area, the complete 100 percent retracement near $0.73839 would recover the full extent of the previous decline, while a shaded area above $1 indicates the extension territory that would formally initiate a new price discovery phase.

Critical Considerations

Kevin’s analysis is not limited to the DOGE asset alone. In a different post, he has projected a short-term target for Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) at 65.45 percent, labeling it as “the macro .786 FIB.” He anticipates that this threshold will act as resistance for the metric, opening a window during which “altcoins [could] gain traction.” For Dogecoin advocates, any stagnation in Bitcoin’s market share might redirect liquidity towards the memecoin sector just as the technical conditions are improving.

Despite the recent upturn, Kevin underscores that neither Bitcoin nor the broader range of altcoins have entered a parabolic phase similar to past cycles. “At no point have BTC or altcoins transitioned into a parabolic stage,” he remarked, attributing the subdued growth to “monetary policy and restricted liquidity which results in decreased risk appetite.”

The analyst believes this scenario may shift as “global liquidity begins to increase and monetary policy loosens,” though he warns that the timeline has been stretched due to “the missteps by central banks and governments during and after the pandemic.”

For now, the memecoin that started as a joke remains connected to the macroeconomic narrative. A foundation at the 0.382 Fibonacci level and a synchronized momentum reset offer a technical launching pad, yet Kevin’s outlook—and Dogecoin’s journey toward the higher Fibonacci targets of $0.26, $0.41, and beyond—ultimately relies on the broader market cycle providing the liquidity that has been lacking so far.

Currently, DOGE is trading at $0.175.

Featured image generated with creative software, chart sourced from a financial analysis platform.